ESPN's FPI Predicts Illinois vs. Rutgers: Will the Illini Bounce Back in Week 10?

The analytical tool made its pick for Illinois-Rutgers, and it appears quite confident in the Illini's ability to rebound from a tough loss

Oct 11, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during warmups prior to a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Although last week’s loss at Washington felt like the knockout punch Illinois won’t get up from, the Illini are 5-3 (2-3 Big Ten) with far smoother sailing ahead of them than what they leave behind. A 9-3 finish – and even perhaps 10-3 with a bowl win – isn’t just a possibility. It should be the expectation for a program whose leadership has been insistent on building a culture of long-term excellence.

We’re moving differently. pic.twitter.com/Vo0I0EXs4V

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 28, 2025

Illinois vs. Rutgers: ESPN's FPI prediction

The first step in that process: take down Rutgers on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, NBC). Fortunately for the Illini, that shouldn’t be a back-breaking task. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) – which, it should be noted, has accurately predicted seven of Illinois’ eight games thus far – the Illini have a 79.7 percent chance of taking down the Scarlet Knights.

Oct 18, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano looks on during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Rutgers is 4-4 (1-4 Big Ten), with its lone conference win coming in Week 9 at Purdue. Greg Schiano’s club has lost three of its four Big Ten games by double digits, including a 46-point blemish at home against Oregon.

ESPN’s FPI currently ranks Rutgers at No. 62 (still ahead of five other Big Ten teams), while Illinois slides into the No. 33 spot.

Is FPI's prediction a fair assessment?

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema watches warm ups before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

At the start of the year, the Illini could have been expected to sleepwalk through this one, but things have changed since then. Illinois has taken care of business against lesser opponents, but save for its win over USC (now looking like an outlier), it has mostly appeared noncompetitive against premier competition.

The Illini defense has yet to recover from a collapse against Indiana in the Big Ten opener, and it is somehow showing signs of further deterioration – which should be a serious concern for coach Bret Bielema and his staff this weekend.

The Scarlet Knights haven’t excelled in 2025, but their offense is their sharpest tool. They have cracked 19 points in four out of five Big Ten games, and they are capable of putting up enough points to make things interesting in Champaign if the Illinois D doesn't fix its ragtag ways.

Even if the matchup turns into a barnburner, quarterback Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense should have little trouble keeping the chains moving – and the scoreboard scrolling up – against Rutgers' own limited defense.

With all that in mind, FPI giving the Illini an approximately four-out-of-five chance Saturday seems fair. Illinois should win this matchup – and handily. That said, Rutgers descending on Gies Memorial Stadium and snatching up the best win of its season suddenly doesn’t feel like the pipe dream it seemed just a few weeks ago.