ESPN's Analytics Project Illinois Football as Underdog in Surprising Six Games

At this point, it’s hardly newsworthy that ESPN’s analytics do not care for the prospects of Illinois football. But the extent of the machine's dislike has become practically unfathomable. As we’ve brought up plenty of times, we understand Illinois’ 10-3 season in 2024 wasn’t metric-friendly, and the knock-on effects of previous seasons and previously middling recruiting results aren't helping.

At the same time, any Big Ten team that goes 10-3, wins a bowl game and returns 16 starters a year later – including its starting quarterback – should have an ally in a statistical model, right? Well, not in this case.

Even with all the not-so-quiet whispers of a light schedule for Illinois – which isn't quite true – the program is expected to go a measly 6-6 in regular-season play, and just 4-5 in the Big Ten, ESPN’s numbers claim.

Mark it, schedule it, book it.

The 2025 Illini Football schedule is here. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/rbVbbohymu
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 11, 2024

Yes, the No. 12 team in the country is expected to go .500 – and below .500 in conference outings. Here’s the full list of all six games ESPN has Illinois pegged as the underdog:

Week 2: at Duke
Illinois’ chances of winning: 48.6 percent

Week 4: at Indiana
Illinois’ chances of winning: 34.6 percent

Week 5: vs. USC
Illinois’ chances of winning: 38.6 percent

Week 7: vs. Ohio State (Week Seven)
Illinois’ chances of winning: 19.2 percent

Week 9: at Washington
Illinois’ chances of winning: 39.7 percent

Week 13: at Wisconsin
Illinois’ chances of winning: 44.4 percent

Although some of those figures were to be expected (notably Ohio State), aa handful come as a surprise – and a couple are outright jaw-dropping. Here are ESPN's three most outlandish projections:

No. 3: at Washington

Nov 9, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch looks on during the third quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Penn State won 35-6. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Playing at Husky Stadium is no stroll through Olympic National Park. After all, Washington has won 20 straight games at home. But the majority of that work was done when the Huskies were competing for a national title with Michael Penix Jr. leading the way. Last year, Washington may have maintained that streak, but it's only truly impressive win was against Michigan. Will the Huskies bounce back from a 4-5 Big Ten season in 2024? They’ll likely take a step forward, but to be that heavily favored (60.3 percent) against the preseason No. 12 team in the country is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.

No. 2: at Wisconsin

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during spring football practice Wednesday, April 23, 2025 in Madison, Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ludicrous. A program on the heels of a 3-6 Big Ten campaign, one that did very little to revamp its squad heading into 2025, and which many project as a bottom-third team in the conference is projected to knock off the 12th-best squad in the nation? Well, ESPN’s numbers seem to think so. But despite Camp Randall being a tough venue, we adamantly disagree with the prediction.

No. 1: vs. USC

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Texas A&M Aggies in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Head-scratching. Sigh-inducing. “You can't be serious?”-prompting. Look, the analytics don't kid, but ... maybe this is some kind of joke? Can (the key word being "can") the Trojans knock off the Illini? One hundred percent. Should the Trojans – who went 4-5 in their first season in the Big Ten last year – be more than 60 percent favorites in this one? Abso-freaking-lutely not.