The Big Question: What Record Does Illinois Need to Make the College Football Playoff?

The expectations around the Illini – including a CFP bid – are sky-high this season. How many wins gets them in?

Jul 22, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Illinois head coach Bret Bielema speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Illinois football is seeking its first-ever College Football Playoff berth, and with a veteran squad led by fifth-year senior gunslinger Luke Altmyer and relentless pass rusher Gabe Jacas, the Illini appear poised to, at the very least, compete for a spot in the season-ending extravaganza.

The Big Ten schedule is undeniably favorable for Illinois, with its toughest matchup – defending national champion Ohio State – coming at home. Although dropping a game to the Buckeyes wouldn’t knock the Illini out of CFP contention, it would force them to be close to perfect in every other week.

Mark it, schedule it, book it.

The 2025 Illini Football schedule is here. #Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/rbVbbohymu

— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 11, 2024

Given that OSU is, per usual, absolutely loaded, we’re going to go out on a limb and say Illinois falls short in that early-October matchup. And if that happens, here’s what the Illini must do to position themselves for a slot in the College Football Playoff:

Must-wins

Week 1: vs. Western Illinois

Week 3: vs. Western Michigan

Week 6: at Purdue

Week 10: vs. Rutgers

Week 12: vs. Maryland

Week 14: vs. Northwestern

Could it be argued that every game is a must-win for a non-blueblood striving to make its first CFP? Sure. But above games are eminently winnable – non-negotiables if Illinois is to give itself enough wiggle room in the likely event of a loss to Ohio State. In the games among this next list, the Illini can afford to lose only one and still remain in the discussion for a CFP bid.

One, then done

Week 2: at Duke

Week 4: at Indiana

Week 5: vs. USC

Week 9: at Washington

Week 13: at Wisconsin

In their perfect world, the Illini avoid defeat against anyone without a big-headed nut for a mascot, but during a long, grueling college football season, even the best teams slip up from time to time. But Illinois may be allowed only one mulligan from the list above. If Bret Bielema's squad can win out from there, a regular-season record of 10-2 figures to push the Illini into the CFP.

Illinois on SI verdict: 10-2

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Colin Cowherd: Illinois Football Would 'House' Bill Belichick and North Carolina

Two Illinois Players Named to Big Ten Preseason Football Honors List

ESPN Makes Bold Proclamation Regarding Illinois vs. Indiana Football Matchup