Why Illinois Is the Biggest Beneficiary of Penn State's Shocking Loss to UCLA

No. 22 Illinois (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) did its job on Saturday. It wasn’t exactly a dominant performance, but Bret Bielema’s club got the road win at Purdue (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) and now is set to face No. 1 Ohio State in Week 7.

And as Bielema himself pointed out, if the Illini are still winning games by 16 points even when they are playing far from their best (final score: 43-27), then they’re clearly doing something right.

HOW BOUT’ THAT CANNON! pic.twitter.com/tGJFszenUd
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 4, 2025

Regardless, Illinois’ win didn’t do much to move the needle in terms of College Football Playoff implications, given that Purdue is a lower-level Big Ten squad.

But in a seemingly unrelated matchup located more than 2,000 miles west, in Los Angeles, an enormous development did change the CFP landscape: No. 7 Penn State lost to the previously winless UCLA Bruins, dropping to 3-2 (0-2 Big Ten).

Final: UCLA 42, Penn State 37
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 4, 2025

Here’s why it matters for Illinois:

Illinois back in the CFP mix

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) warms up prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Last year, in the inaugural season of the 12-team CFP, four Big Ten squads earned a berth. In 2025, the expectation is the conference will send another quartet of teams to the postseason tournament.

Through six weeks, Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana have three of those spots locked up. Penn State – which still has a road matchup against Ohio State on the docket and a home contest against Indiana – appears poised to be a three-loss team at best.

That leaves four teams realistically vying for the final spot from the conference: Washington, USC, Michigan and Illinois.

The Illini already have the head-to-head advantage over the Trojans. Michigan is at USC next week, then has Washington at home, along with Ohio State to finish up the season. Of note: The Wolverines have already lost a non-conference game – albeit it to a stellar SEC foe in Oklahoma.

As for Washington – which has already lost to Ohio State – it has that aforementioned journey to Michigan, a home outing with Illinois and the season finale against Oregon.

So what this all boils down to is quite simple: Illinois can still get into the CFP with a loss against No. 1 Ohio State next week. In their perfect world, the Illini obviously pull off an upset. But in the event they do, they still are strong CFP hopefuls if they can win out.

See y'all at the next one.

Be loud. WEAR ORANGE. pic.twitter.com/cvI4Ao8Vyo
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 4, 2025

A road contest at Washington is anything but a gimme, but Illinois has the ability to win that game – and would likely be well en route to a CFP berth if it does.

Extra help outside the Big Ten

Illinois' Head Coach Bret Bielema during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big Ten could, theoretically, send only three teams to the College Football Playoff – but that seems quite unlikely. Especially after Iowa State’s loss this week, the Big 12 is almost certainly a one-bid conference. (Whoever wins the Big 12 title game would be in.)

As for the ACC, Miami must win the conference championship. If the Hurricanes don’t, then the ACC title game winner would earn an automatic bid and Miami would still get an at-large spot – which would reduce the Big Ten’s chances of sending a fourth team to the CFP.

Also, the SEC may very well put four teams of its own in the CFP – although it’s still more likely only three SEC squads will go, considering that the conference tends to cannibalize itself.

Finally, we have Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have already dropped two games, but they would have a great CFP argument if they win out. (Their toughest remaining matchup is at home against USC.)

But as things stand today, this is the most likely outcome: the Big 12 and ACC, respectively, are each a one-bid conference. A Group of 5 conference will receive one bid. We’ll project Notre Dame to win out and get in. That leaves eight spots for the Big Ten and SEC.

Even if the conference down south manages to secure four bids in 2025, the Big Ten will, once again, send four squads of its own.

Moral of the story: Illinois’ College Football Playoff hopes are not just alive. They’re thriving.