Indiana's Chances of Beating Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament

Indiana gets started in the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday night in Chicago, and if it hopes to have its season continue, it better win.

The Hoosiers take on Northwestern, who beat Penn State in Tuesday night's opening round at the United Center, 76-66.

Indiana sits very much on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, likely with a bit of work to do if it hopes to make the dance.

Indiana vs. Northwestern: The Last Time

Indiana and Northwestern met just once this season, on February 24 at Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers were stunned on their home floor, falling to the Wildcats, 72-68.

Indiana led by as many as 13 points in the first half of that game, but didn't have answers down the stretch as Northwestern outscored it 39-26 in the second half.

Quad 3 loss for Indiana tonight at home against Northwestern.

First loss of the season for the Hoosiers outside of Quad 1. https://t.co/60qJVdxPRj
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 25, 2026

Indiana's issues with stopping bigs this season was evident on this night as Nick Martinelli of Northwestern led all scorers with 28 points. As has been the case much of the season, Indiana also struggled on the glass, being out-rebounded 34-23 by the Wildcats.

Northwestern Without Key Player on Wednesday Night

Northwestern forward Arrinten Page has missed the last two Wildcats games due to an illness. Shortly after Tuesday night's victory over Penn State, Northwestern head coach Chris Collins met the media and discussed Page's availability for Wednesday night.

"Obviously, we're a big guy down with AP. AP will be out [Thursday against Indiana]," Collins said. "He won't be with us tomorrow, then it's kind of a day-to-day after that."

Page has been a key part of Northwestern's team this year, averaging 10.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game.

ESPN BPI Predicts Indiana-Northwestern Matchup

The computers at ESPN have crunched the numbers and made a prediction for Wednesday night's contest.

The ESPN Basketball Power Index gives Indiana at 69.5% chance at winning and moving on to a Thursday night date with Purdue, while it gives Northwestern just a 30.5% chance of victory.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought

This is one of those games that Indiana needs to come out and be ready for. It hasn't won away from Assembly Hall since beating UCLA on January 31, and mostly hasn't been competitive away from home.

The United Center might be just a few miles from Northwestern's campus, but the stadium isn't going to be packed full of Wildcats fans by any means.

Figure out a way to slow Martinelli down, don't turn the ball over like crazy, and live to fight another day.

Get it done so by roughly 8 o'clock tonight, the season isn't done.