Big Ten Tournament Watch: Indiana Women Have Work To Do To Get Best Possible Seed

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana’s women’s basketball team is in a place it hasn’t been in for a long time – the middle of the pack in the Big Ten race.

Indiana lost 66-56 at Minnesota on Sunday and suffered a fall-from-ahead 70-67 defeat at Michigan on Wednesday.

The NCAA Tournament ramifications of these losses have yet to come into focus. Indiana’s Big Ten aspirations are also not set in stone, but the two losses changed the dynamic regarding where the Hoosiers can land.

Indiana is in a four-way tie for ninth place at 7-6 in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers are tied with Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska.

As far as the Big Ten race is concerned, Indiana is only two games out of fourth place, but there are nine teams in a two-game range between fourth and 12th place.

That would seem to create possibilities for a positive run, but it’s more complicated. With so much parity, tiebreakers are almost certainly going to come into play.

Among the teams it’s fighting with, the Hoosiers win tiebreakers with Iowa and Nebraska. Indiana loses tiebreakers with Illinois, Michigan, Oregon and Minnesota. The Hoosiers haven’t played Michigan State or Maryland yet.

Indiana’s 2-4 tiebreaker record against the teams it’s fighting with is not ideal. To avoid going the long route at the Big Ten Tournament means finishing ninth or better.

Right now, Indiana would just barely make the cut to avoid that fate. If today’s standings were the finishing standings, Indiana would be the No. 9 seed. It would be the top team in its four-way tie with a 2-1 head-to-head record.

However, if you slip Michigan or Oregon into that tiebreaker the Hoosiers slide given that they lost to both schools.

The Big Ten women’s tournament is not far off. It begins on March 5, and Indiana only has five conference games to go.

For the purposes of this story, we set the results of the other games as giving the home team the benefit of the doubt. If the home team is within 15 spots of its opponent in the NET, it gets the winning nod.

Here’s some Big Ten Tournament scenarios to consider for the Hoosiers.

If All Predicted Outcomes Came True

Indiana would finish in a three-way tie for eighth place at 10-8 with Minnesota and Nebraska. The Hoosiers would win the tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed based on a predicted home win over No. 4 seed Maryland. Once you get past head-to-head tiebreakers, the Big Ten uses wins against highest-seeded teams to break ties.

In this case, No. 8 Indiana would play No. 9 Minnesota on day two of the Big Ten Tournament. Nebraska would get the No. 10 seed and have to start on the first day of the tournament.

What If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games?

Indiana would be 12-6 in the Big Ten and finish in a fifth-place tie with Illinois. Since the Hoosiers lost to Illinois, Indiana would get the No. 6 seed. Indiana would begin the Big Ten Tournament on day two and would play the winner of No. 11 Oregon and No. 14 Penn State.

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

Not a very likely scenario with two games against Purdue (2-11 in the Big Ten) to come. But if it did happen, Indiana would finish 7-11 in the Big Ten and in a 12th place tie with Washington. The Hoosiers beat the Huskies head-to-head, so Indiana would get the No. 12 seed and would play Washington on day one of the Big Ten Tournament. The winner would play No. 5 Illinois.

What If Indiana Wins Its Remaining Home Games?

Three of Indiana’s remaining five games are at home, though two of them are against powers Ohio State and Maryland. If the Hoosiers protected their home floor and won as expected at Purdue, Indiana would be 11-7 in the Big Ten and would be in a three-way tie for sixth place with Michigan State and Michigan.

Indiana would come out on the low end of that tiebreaker with a loss at Michigan and a predicted loss at Michigan State. The Hoosiers would be the No. 8 seed and play No. 9 Nebraska on day two of the Big Ten Tournament. The winner would face No. 1 UCLA.

What Is The Minimum Standard For Indiana To Make The Big Ten Tournament?

Indiana’s minimum Big Ten record is 7-11. Even if every team below Indiana won all of their games, an extremely unlikely scenario given their struggles, there’s virtually no combination that sends the Hoosiers out of tournament contention entirely. Many of the bottom-feeders play one another, so while one team gains, another team does not.

Indiana has two remaining games against struggling Purdue. That alone should lift the Hoosiers to a .500 finish in Big Ten play.

What Is The Minimum Standard To Get A Bye To Day Two Of The Big Ten Tournament?

This is where it gets complicated.

You already read that by the predicted outcome and the outcome in which Indiana wins its remaining home games, the Hoosiers would get the bye to day two of the Big Ten Tournament.

However, this is all completely tiebreaker driven. If Indiana finds itself in a tiebreaker, it would help the Hoosiers to have Iowa and Nebraska tied with them. Indiana beat both, so it creates a more favorable dynamic.

What Indiana does not want is something like a three-way tie for eighth with Oregon and Minnesota. In that case, Indiana lost to both and would slide to the No. 10 seed, the highest seed that participates on day one of the Big Ten Tournament – and face the odyssey of having to win five games in five days.

As far as a double bye is concerned, Indiana would need Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan and Illinois to lose as many games as possible. It’s theoretically possible for a scenario to play out where Indiana reaches a No. 4 seed or better, but it’s a near impossibility given that all four still have games against Big Ten bottom feeders and against one another too.