Bubble Games Impact Indiana's NCAA Tournament Chances This Weekend

Along with Indiana's matchup against No. 13 Michigan State, several games this weekend will affect the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes. Here's the full schedule.
Indiana coach Darian DeVries against Northwestern at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026.
Indiana coach Darian DeVries against Northwestern at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Step one for Indiana is to defeat No. 13 Michigan State Sunday afternoon at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

That would do wonders for the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament resume, as would taking care of business against Minnesota and Ohio State in the final two regular season games. But after Tuesday's crushing Quad 3 home loss to Northwestern, Indiana may need help from others to reach the big dance.

The Hoosiers are listed as the last team in the tournament in Joe Lunardi's updated Bracketology from Friday morning. That does not mean they're safe, though, as just 62 of 89 projections on BracketMatrix.com feature Indiana in the 68-team field with Selection Sunday quickly approaching on March 15.

Here's a look at the bubble, according to Lunardi, followed by a list of games that could impact Indiana's NCAA Tournament chances, with odds by the DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • First Four Byes: Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas  
  • Last Four In: Auburn, TCU, Santa Clara, Indiana 
  • First Four Out: Cal, New Mexico, Ohio State, USC 
  • Next Four Out: VCU, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Cincinnati

South Carolina vs. Georgia (first four byes)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT on SEC Network
  • Location: Stegeman Coliseum in Athens, Ga.
  • Point spread: Georgia -12.5

Missouri (first four byes) vs. Mississippi State

  • Time, TV: Saturday at Noon CT on SEC Network
  • Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Miss.
  • Point spread: Missouri -1.5

Texas (first four byes) vs. Texas A&M (first four byes)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 3 p.m. CT on ESPN2
  • Location: Reed Arena in College Station, Texas
  • Point spread: Texas A&M -1.5

Ole Miss vs. Auburn (last four in)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. CT on SEC Network
  • Location: Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala.
  • Point spread: Auburn -9.5

TCU (last four in) vs. Kansas State

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 5:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2
  • Location: Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kan.
  • Point spread: TCU -3.5

Oregon State vs. Santa Clara (last four in)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 7 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network
  • Location: Leavey Center in Santa Clara, Calif.
  • Point spread: Santa Clara -17.5

No. 13 Michigan State vs. Indiana (last four in)

  • Time, TV: Sunday at 2:45 p.m. CT on CBS
  • Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind.
  • Point spread: Will update when available

Pittsburgh vs. California (first four out)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 3 p.m. CT on ACC Network
  • Location: Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, Calif.
  • Point spread: Cal -7.5

San Diego State vs. New Mexico (first four out)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 1 p.m. CT on CBS
  • Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Point spread: New Mexico -1.5

No. 8 Purdue vs. Ohio State (first four out)

  • Time, TV: Sunday at 12:30 p.m. CT on CBS
  • Location: Schottenstein Center in Columbus, Ohio
  • Point spread: Will update when available

No. 12 Nebraska vs. USC (first four out)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 3 p.m. CT on Big Ten Network
  • Location: Galen Center in Los Angeles, Calif.
  • Point spread: Nebraska -6.5

Fordham vs. VCU (next four out)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 11:30 a.m. CT on USA
  • Location: Stuart Siegel Center in Richmond, Va.
  • Point spread: VCU -12.5

Virginia Tech (next four out) vs. No. 18 North Carolina

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2
  • Location: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
  • Point spread: North Carolina -7.5

Seton Hall (next four out) vs. No. 6 UConn

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
  • Location: Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Conn.
  • Point spread: UConn -14.5

Oklahoma State vs. Cincinnati (next four out)

  • Time, TV: Saturday at 1 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network
  • Location: Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Point spread: Cincinnati -10.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Jack Ankony
JACK ANKONY

Jack Ankony has been covering IU basketball and football with “Indiana Hoosiers on SI” since 2022. He graduated from Indiana University's Media School with a degree in journalism.

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