March Madness No. 1 Seed Odds: Which Teams Will Grab Top Seeds in NCAA Tournament?

We are rapidly approaching the 2026 edition of March Madness, so teams across the country are battling every night to not only improve their seeding for the upcoming conference tournaments but also to improve their chances of earning a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

There are a handful of teams that have been truly elite this season, and the picture for which of them will claim the No. 1 seeds in the tournament has started to become clearer.

One of the best ways to figure out which teams will lock up the four No. 1 seeds is to take a look at the betting odds. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, three of the four spots have already been virtually accounted for, but the fourth is still up for grabs. Let's take a look.

NCAA Tournament No. 1 Seed Odds

Duke -20000
Arizona -20000
Michigan -20000
UConn -285
Iowa State +800
Florida +1100
Illinois +1300
Houston +1300
Purdue +2500

Duke, Arizona, and Michigan all have -20000 of claiming a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which is an implied probability of 99.5%. Those should seem obvious to anyone who has followed college basketball this season.

Duke leads the ACC with wins this season against the likes of Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State, Louisville (twice), and most recently, Michigan. A win against second-place Virginia on Saturday would lock up the regular-season ACC title and likely a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Arizona holds a two-game lead in the Big 12, which is undoubtedly the best conference in college basketball this season. The Wildcats have wins against Florida, UConn, Auburn, Alabama, BYU (twice), and Houston. Of the three teams with overwhelming odds of being a No. 1 seed, Arizona is the one most in danger of falling out of that spot. Two of its final three games of the season are against Kansas and Iowa State, two tough challenges. If they lose both, it opens the door for another Big 12 team, likely Iowa State, to steal it from the Wildcats.

The Michigan Wolverines have just two losses this season, one of them coming against another top-tier team, the Duke Blue Devils. They have a three-game lead on the Big Ten and have racked up wins this season against Gonzaga, Villanova, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue.

UConn is the current -285 favorite to land the fourth No. 1 seed at -285 odds, an implied probability of 74.03%. After their Wednesday night win against St. John's, they have reclaimed the top spot in the Big East, and if they can now beat Seton Hall and Marquette to close out the regular season and then go on to win the conference tournament, the Huskies will likely snag the final No. 1 seed. They have won this season against BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida, and most recently, St. John's.

The other teams with a realistic shot are Iowa State and Florida. The Cyclones have another game against Arizona this year. If they can beat the Wildcats and then win the Big 12 tournament, there would be a strong case to be made for Iowa State.

The SEC has arguably had a down year, but it's Florida that holds a two-game lead in the conference heading into the final few games. If the Gators can win out and carry that momentum into the conference tournament, it'd be hard to look past the defending national champions.

The likes of Illinois (+1300), Houston (+1300), and Purdue (+2500) have outside shots of getting the No. 1 seed, but they'd not only have to win out, but they would need some help from some teams above them losing a few games against inferior opponents.

Selection Sunday will take place on March 15.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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