Indiana Bracketology: Teams To Watch For On The NCAA Tournament Bubble

Indiana is back in the NCAA Tournament hunt. Here are some teams Hoosiers fans can scoreboard-watch as the final two weeks of the regular season plays out.

Indiana's Myles Rice (1) celebrates during the Indiana versus Purdue mens basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It’s happening.

Indiana’s 73-58 win over No. 13 Purdue on Sunday is already paying off – at least as far as the prognosticators are concerned.

In his latest update, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has Indiana in the NCAA Tournament field. He has Indiana seeded at No. 11 and playing a play-in game against Wake Forest in Dayton, Ohio. The winner would advance into the South Regional and play No. 6 seed Memphis in Providence, R.I.

Indiana got a double bonus in terms of Quad 1 wins over the weekend. he Hoosiers gained a Quad 1 win with the victory over the Boilermakers, and Penn State got back in the top 75 of the NET. So the win at the Palestra in January is restored (for now) as a Quad 1 victory. The Hoosiers have a 4-11 record in Quad 1 games. Indiana still lags in the NET, however, as the Hoosiers are ranked No. 56 on Monday.

There will be more bracketology to come between now and Indiana’s 8:30 p.m. ET Wednesday home game against Penn State.

Just as important as Indiana’s performance are the fortunes of the teams around the Hoosiers on the tournament bubble. Here’s a guide to the teams Indiana is fighting with to get into the NCAA Tournament field. As you scoreboard-watch your way to the end of the season, keep an eye on these teams.

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari talks to a game official during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Neville Arena. | John Reed-Imagn Images

• Arkansas – The Razorbacks (16-11, NET: 40) are much like the Hoosiers in that they haven’t had any period of consistent winning. However, like Indiana, Arkansas has access to multiple Quad 1 win opportunities in the Southeastern Conference. Like the Hoosiers, the Razorbacks have four Quad 1 wins and right now? That’s enough to sneak into the field. Arkansas plays two more bubble teams (Texas, Mississippi State) at home before the season ends.

• Boise State – The Mountain West Conference isn’t quite the powerhouse it has been the last two seasons, but the Broncos (19-8, NET: 46) are in the mix for an at-large bid. Boise State has three Quad 1 wins – Saint Mary’s, Clemson and at Nevada on Saturday. Boise State has resume-friendly games left against Utah State and Colorado State.

• UC San Diego – You won’t see the Tritons (22-4, NET: 36) on bracket bubble watches because they’re usually put in the field as the presumed Big West Conference champions. But if they slip in their conference tournament, UC San Diego is a bubble team. UC San Diego’s best win is a victory at Utah State, but like so many mid-majors their access to Quad 1 games is limited as the Tritons are 2-1. What has made them NET friendly is that the Tritons have 17 wins by double-digit margins.

• Cincinnati – The Bearcats (16-11, NET: 44) have been streaky with both a three-game winning and losing streak in the last month. Cincinnati needs quality wins as it is just 1-9 in Quad 1 games, and it has only one Quad 1 opportunity left with a trip to Houston on Saturday.

Drake's Isaia Howard (23) looks to score near the basket on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025, at the Knapp Center. | Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Drake – Like UC San Diego, Drake (25-3, NET: 58) isn’t listed on bubbles, but if the Bulldogs lose in their conference tournament, they’re right in the mix. Drake won its only Quad 1 game, an 81-70 victory over Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs have four Quad 2 wins, all coming on the road.

• George Mason – The Patriots (21-6, NET: 65) co-lead the Atlantic 10 Conference, which is quietly rated as the sixth-best in the nation. The problem for George Mason is that it has lost all three of its Quad 1 games, and it has no opportunities left to get another.

• Georgia – The Bulldogs (16-11, NET: 41) have a resume almost identical to fellow SEC school Arkansas, but unlike the Razorbacks, Georgia is definitely trending downward with four straight losses and nine in their last 11 games. The Bulldogs also have just two Quad 1 wins. Still, the SEC provides opportunities and Georgia still plays Florida, Texas and Vanderbilt.

• Nebraska – Bracketology consensus seems to be that Nebraska (17-10, NET: 54) is in the field. This is likely based on the five Quad 1 wins the Cornhuskers have. Indiana needs Nebraska to lose, both for NCAA Tournament and Big Ten Tournament purposes, given that the Hoosiers lost at Nebraska in December. The Huskers have Quad 1 chances at Michigan (tonight) and at Ohio State.

• North Carolina – Like Indiana, North Carolina (17-11, NET: 45) is a program with national championship legacy playing well below its usual standard. While the Tar Heels are 10-6 in the ACC, they are also 1-10 in Quad 1 games. North Carolina’s home game against Duke on March 8 is its only Quad 1 game left.

• Ohio State – The mercurial Buckeyes (15-13, NET: 34) have the metrics right, but the overall record wrong. Ohio State has lost five of seven games, but it also has five Quad 1 wins. Indiana has a chance to sweep Ohio State when the Buckeyes visit Assembly Hall on March 8. It will be an important game.

Oklahoma Sooners guard Brycen Goodine (2) gestures after scoring against Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Riley Kugel (2) during the second half at Lloyd Noble Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

• Oklahoma – Oklahoma (17-10, NET: 51) started the season 13-0 and won Battle 4 Atlantis, but have tumbled since. A win over Mississippi State on Saturday was the Sooners’ first since Feb. 1. The Sooners have five Quad 1 wins, which helps their cause. All of Oklahoma’s remaining four games are Quad 1s (Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Missouri, at Texas), so watch this space.

• Pittsburgh – The Panthers (16-11, NET: 55) suffer with the doldrums deep in the ACC. Pitt is just 1-8 in Quad 1 games and only has one game left (at Louisville) to get another.

• San Diego State – The Aztecs (17-7, NET: 49) are 4-5 in Quad 1 games, which might be enough to get San Diego State over the line. A home win against New Mexico on Tuesday might be a clincher.

• SMU – The Mustangs (20-7, NET: 39) have a good NET ranking but a damning 0-5 record in Quad 1 games and no Quad 1 games left. SMU will bear watching in the ACC Tournament.

• Texas – The rising tide lifts all boats saying applies to all SEC teams on the bubble. The Longhorns (16-11, NET: 38) are an example. Texas has four Quad 1 wins, but it hasn’t won consecutive games since January. The Longhorns play fellow bubble teams Arkansas, Georgia and Oklahoma before the season ends.

• Vanderbilt – Another SEC team on the bubble. The Commodores (18-9, NET: 43) are 3-8 in Quad 1 contests, but all three are against teams in the top 30. All but one of Vanderbilt’s remaining games are Quad 1 opportunities.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams forward Tobi Lawal (10) battles against Dayton Flyers forward Nate Santos (2) during the first half of the game at University of Dayton Arena. | Matt Lunsford-Imagn Images

• Virginia Commonwealth – Like George Mason, the Rams (21-5, NET: 31) co-lead the Atlantic 10. However, VCU is 0-1 in Quad 1 games without any chances to add another.

• Wake Forest – The Demon Deacons (19-8, NET: 63) are hanging by a thread. They have just two Quad 1 wins, though there’s the opportunity for a resume-making win at Duke on March 3.

• West Virginia – The Mountaineers (16-11, NET: 48) have five Quad 1 wins, enough to make the field or so they hope. A March 4 trip to Utah is the only remaining Quad 1 game on the schedule.

• Xavier – The Big East Conference presents its share of Quad 1 games, but the Musketeers (18-10, NET: 53) are only 1-9 in those games. Xavier doesn’t have any Quad 1 games left, though a home win over Creighton on Saturday would do the Musketeers a world of good.

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