Meet The Opponent: Wisconsin, Featuring Big Ten’s Top-Rated Offense, Hosts Indiana

Indiana gets another chance to snap its 20-game losing streak at Wisconsin in Tuesday’s 9 p.m. ET tipoff at the Kohl Center in Madison.

But it won’t be easy, as No. 21 Wisconsin enters the matchup with the Big Ten’s best offense, ranking seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Badgers are coming off a 75-69 win Saturday at Northwestern and have an 11-1 record at home.

Coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers played one of their best games of the season Friday at Purdue, but faltered in the final minute of an 81-76 loss. Indiana has lost five of its last six games, putting its NCAA Tournament hopes in serious jeopardy.

Here’s a full breakdown of the Badgers.

Key players

G John Tonje: 18.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 41.5 3pt FG%
G John Blackwell: 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 35.1 3pt FG%
F Nolan Winter: 10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 59.0 FG%
G Max Klesmit: 10 ppg, 2.8 apg, 28.2 3pt FG%
C Steven Crowl: 9.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 54.4 FG%
G Kamari McGee: 7.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 54.0 3pt FG%
F Xavier Amos: 3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 34.7 FG%
F Carter Gilmore: 3.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 40.0 3pt FG%
F Markus Ilver: 2.1 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 38.1 FG%
G Jack Janicki: 1.7 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 28.6 FG%

Key departures

(stats from 2023-24)

G AJ Storr: 16.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 32.0 3pt FG%
F Tyler Wahl: 10.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 53.5 FG%
G Chucky Hepburn: 9.2 ppg, 3.9 apg, 32.2 3pt FG%
G Connor Essegian: 3.2 ppg, 30.3 3pt FG%

2024-25 schedule (17-5, 7-4)

W, 85-61 vs. Holy Cross
W, 79-67 vs. Montana State
W, 87-56 vs. Appalachian State
W, 103-88 vs. No. 9 Arizona
W, 87-84 vs. UT-Rio Grande Valley
W, 86-70 vs. UCF (neutral site)
W, 81-75 vs. Pittsburgh (neutral site)
W, 74-53 vs. Chicago State
L, 67-64 vs. Michigan
L, 88-74 at No. 5 Marquette
L, 86-80 at Illinois
W, 83-74 vs. Butler (neutral site)
W, 76-53 vs. Detroit Mercy
W, 116-85 vs. Iowa
W, 75-63 at Rutgers
W, 80-59 vs. Minnesota
W, 70-68 vs. Ohio State
W, 84-69 at USC
L, 85-83 at UCLA
W, 83-55 vs. Nebraska
L, 76-68 at Maryland
W, 75-69 at Northwestern

Head coach: Greg Gard

Gard has a 202-111 overall record and a 110-73 record in regular season Big Ten play since taking over for Hall of Fame coach Bo Ryan during the 2015-16 season. Wisconsin won a share of the Big Ten title in 2020 and 2022, and Gard was named Big Ten coach of the year both seasons. He also won the Jim Phelan national coach of the year award in 2016. Gard led the Badgers to back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances his first two seasons, and they’ve since reached the NCAA Tournament Round of 32 twice and Round of 64 twice. Prior to becoming head coach, Gard was an assistant under Ryan since 2001. Gard, 54, was previously an assistant at Milwaukee, Wisconsin-Platteville, Platteville High School and Southwestern High School.

Series history

Indiana leads the all-time series 99-80. Woodson is 2-3 against the Badgers, who have dominated the series in recent history. Since the 2001-02 season, Wisconsin has a 31-8 record against Indiana, including a 12-game win streak from 2008-13. Indiana has lost 20 straight games in Madison, Wis., dating back to March 5, 2000. The Hoosiers’ last win at the Kohl Center was during the building’s first season, a 69-59 victory on Jan. 25, 1998. Though the series has flipped heavily in Wisconsin’s favor recently, Indiana went 45-4 against Wisconsin, including a 23-3 run in Madison, from 1972-98 under Hall of Fame coach Bob Knight.

Strengths

Wisconsin had its skeptics after losing a lot from last year’s team that earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, including leading scorer AJ Storr, point guard Chucky Hepburn and veteran power forward Tyler Wahl. But Gard made a key transfer portal addition and developed the rest of his roster into a team that leads the Big Ten and ranks seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Former Missouri guard John Tonje has been one of the most impactful transfers in college basketball this season. He leads the Badgers with 18.6 points per game, including four straight games with 23-plus points and a 41-point performance to lift Wisconsin over No. 9 Arizona in November. The 6-foot-5, sixth-year senior ranks second with 31 3-pointers made in Big Ten play on 45.6% 3-point shooting.

John Tonje Wisconsin Basketball — Wisconsin guard John Tonje (9) shoots against Maryland at Xfinity Center. | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

Sophomore guard John Blackwell makes a case as the Big Ten’s most improved player. He’s gone from 8.0 points per game off the bench last season to 15.5 while leading the Badgers in minutes played. His 3-point percentage has fallen about 10% with higher volume overall, though he’s still shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc in conference play. Sophomore forward Nolan Winter is another example of Gard’s impressive player development, going from 2.4 points per game as a freshman to 10.1 this season in a starting role.

Wisconsin’s offense is difficult to stop for a variety of reasons. It frequently puts five capable 3-point shooters on the floor together, as it ranks 20th nationally in 3-point attempt rate and 62nd at 36.3%. Even its starting front court, Winter (39.6%) and Steven Crowl (32.4%), are shooting threats. Indiana gave up 25 3-pointers in a recent two-game stretch against Northwestern and Maryland and must be sharp defensively in this area.

The Badgers turn the ball over just 10.3 times per game, which comes out to the nation’s 32nd best turnover percentage. They also lead the country in free throw shooting at 84.6%. Indiana has given up 79-plus points in all eight losses this season, and Wisconsin may have the best offense the Hoosiers have faced.

Weaknesses

One of Wisconsin’s biggest weaknesses plays into Indiana’s favor. As a team, Wisconsin ranks 332nd nationally with 2.1 blocks per game and 17th in the Big Ten. Winter and Crowl combine to average just one block per game. Lacking strong interior defenders could be an issue against an Indiana frontcourt that is particularly efficient on 2-point field goals, including Oumar Ballo (65.5%), Malik Reneau (60.8%) and Mackenzie Mgbako (54.8%). Instead of settling for outside shots, Indiana could find success driving the ball with Myles Rice and Trey Galloway, and posting up Ballo and Reneau.

Defensively, Wisconsin ranks 337th in steal percentage and 312th in opponent turnover percentage. Indiana’s 20 turnovers proved costly in Friday’s narrow loss at Purdue, but the Hoosiers should have an easier time limiting that against Wisconsin’s defense. That’s not to say the Badgers are a poor defensive group – they rank 46th nationally in defensive efficiency – but they don’t thrive on forcing turnovers.

Wisconsin will hope senior guard Max Klesmit finds his shooting stroke as the season goes on. Klesmit shot 39.1% from 3-point range across 286 attempts in his first two seasons with the Badgers, but he’s gone cold this year, shooting just 28.2% on 6.2 attempts per game and 26.3% in Big Ten play. It should only be a matter of time before he starts hitting shots at his career rate, which Indiana is familiar with after allowing him to make 8-of-15 3-point attempts across two matchups last season.

Max Klesmit Wisconsin Basketball — Wisconsin guard Max Klesmit (11) shoots against Illinois at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Season and game outlook

Wisconsin entered the season picked 12th in the preseason Big Ten poll, but that’s looking too low as the Badgers sit in a fourth-place tie just past the midway point of conference play. Wisconsin is 16th in the NET rankings with a 6-5 record against Quad 1 opponents and 14th on KenPom, good for third among Big Ten teams. Joe Lunardi gave the Badgers a No. 4 seed in his latest NCAA Tournament bracketology.

Wisconsin is projected to defeat Indiana 82-71 and has an 82% chance of victory, according to KenPom. Wisconsin’s potent offense is certainly a concern for an Indiana defense that’s allowing 78.2 points per game in Big Ten play, tied for fourth most, and has struggled mightily to defend 3-point shooters in several games this season. The Hoosiers have an advantage inside with Ballo and Reneau, but that won’t matter if they can’t consistently get defensive stops.

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