Projecting Indiana Basketball's Worst-Case Scenario for the 2026-27 Season

There is cautious optimism in Bloomington surrounding Hoosiers hoops entering 2026-27, but what will the season look like if nothing goes to plan?

Mar 11, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries shouts instructions to his team against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On the heels of Indiana football’s historical 2025 campaign, which was capped off with a national title, Curt Cignetti and his squad have demanded the majority of Bloomington’s attention this offseason. But over on the hardwood, head man Darian DeVries and his club have been putting in work, as well. 

After posting a mediocre 18-14 (9-11) debut campaign in 2025-26, DeVries is seeking to get Indiana back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022-2023.

And with the offseason haul DeVries put together, the baseline expectation is that the Hoosiers will be dancing again. Ideally, they keep their dancing shoes on for a long time next March. 

But is there a future that doesn’t involve Indiana in next year’s March Madness? With an expanded 76-team field, on paper, it’d be a shock to not see the Hoosiers earn a bid, but is it possible? We’ll examine that question – and more – below:

What is Indiana basketball’s floor in 2026-27?

Feb 25, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; SMU Mustangs center Samet Yigitoglu (24) reacts against the California Golden Bears during the first half at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The much-discussed frontcourt pairing of Aiden Sherrell (Alabama transfer) and Samet Yigitoglu (SMU transfer) is going to be many things – physical, strong on the glass, excellent at protecting the rim, to name a few – but it may lack a key attribute: shooting. 

Yigitoglu is, without a doubt, a non-shooter. Sherrell, meanwhile, has hit 41 triples in his two-year career and at a solid enough clip of 33.6 percent. Last season’s free-throw percentage of 71.3 speaks to that three-point efficiency holding strong in the future. And, not for nothing, DeVries says Sherrell has shot the ball quite well in the summer. 

Then again, Sherrell could easily shoot sub-30 from beyond the arc next season. Shooting is a volatile skill – even for the very best marksmen (which Sherrell is not). And if he does, Indiana’s dominant frontcourt duo will instantly be a floor-shrinking nightmare that derails the Hoosiers offense. 

Jan 3, 2026; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama forward Aiden Sherrell (22) takes a shot against Kentucky at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Admittedly, that may be a touch dramatic. But put simply, Indiana cannot afford to have two non-shooting bigs if it hopes to compete in the Big Ten and go on a run in March (especially if wing Jaeden Mustaf, a below average shooter, is also on the floor). 

Then we have the other end of the floor. Markus Burton may be just 6-foot flat, but he can really defend. His tone-setting presence alone will elevate the rest of his club on that end.

But Bryce Lindsay, the projected starting shooting guard, doesn’t have ideal size at 6-foot-3 and he has been a subpar defender throughout his career. 

Jan 21, 2026; Villanova, Pennsylvania, USA; Georgetown Hoyas forward Caleb Williams (4) controls the ball against Villanova Wildcats guard Bryce Lindsay (2) in the first half at William B. Finneran Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Darren Harris won’t make many mistakes off the ball, and he plays hard on it, but he doesn’t have the physical traits to be a stalwart on that end. As for Mustaf, he needs to improve at the point of attack and in help side – although, with his athleticism and length, he may have the most defensive upside on the roster. 

Moving to the defensive frontcourt, both Sherrell and Yigitoglu can patrol the paint effectively, but characterizing either as mobile would be a tad overambitious. How can Indiana match up against Big Ten squads with shooters across the board? Can Sherrell keep athletic fours in front? Can Yigitoglu survive in ball-screen action?

DeVries, with his defensive track record, has earned the benefit of the doubt on that end – especially considering he’ll have better athletes throughout the roster than he did a season ago. 

But there still is an abundance of questions swirling around Indiana’s defensive ability heading into 2026-27. And if the answers aren’t found, or the solutions are less-than desirable, the Hoosiers could wind up giving up as many buckets as they’re getting.