Hoosiers Now

ESPN’s Advanced Metric Predicts Indiana vs Iowa: Are the Hoosiers in a 'Trap Game'?

ESPN's Bill Connelly foresees Indiana-Iowa as a "trap game" for the visitors. Which squad is his SP+ metric riding with?
Jackson Langendorf|
Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025
Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

Indiana Hoosiers

On the heels of college football’s most impressive win of 2025 (a 63-10 routing of then-No. 9 Illinois), No. 11 Indiana is turning its attention towards its next matchup: at Iowa. 

With legendary head coach Kirk Ferentz still at the helm, the Hawkeyes naturally remain a stingy defensive opponent, having allowed just 14.5 points per game – although they conceded 28 to Rutgers in Week 4. 

ESPN SP+ predicts Indiana vs Iowa

And playing at Kinnick Stadium, one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten, it won’t be easy sledding for the Hoosiers on Saturday. 

Not to mention the difficulty of following up their dominant Week 4 showing. Rolling out the same product on a weekly basis over months of a grueling college football season is already a tall task, but to have the same level of motivation and drive after such an effortless performance against a highly anticipated foe is a sneakily difficult feat. 

Iowa is by no means a rollover, but the stakes of this contest pale in comparison to the repercussions of Indiana’s outing against Illinois. Curt Cignetti’s ability to rally his troops, and inspire them in a similar manner ahead of this Week 5 game will be imperative in ensuring the Hoosiers aren’t upset. 

Curt Cignett
Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti celebrates after defeating the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

That notion can’t entirely be quantified by the analytics, but ESPN’s SP+ still doesn’t see Indiana walking into Iowa City and turning on cruise control en route to a comfortable victory. 

Nevertheless, the metric – created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly – foresees the Hoosiers knocking off the Hawkeyes by a final score of 30-21. The analytical tool also gives Indiana a 72 percent chance of triumphing on the road. 

Also worth noting, although this isn’t entirely reflected by SP+’s prediction, Connelly makes it abundantly clear that Indiana is on upset watch:

And it makes sense. Few minds in college football are better-equipped at shutting down a high-powered offense the likes of Indiana than Ferentz. 

Toss in the aforementioned home-field advantage for Iowa’s, along with the Hoosiers potentially riding their high of last week’s victory, and everything appears to be lining up for the Hawkeyes to be in a prime spot to knock off the nation’s No. 11 squad. 

That said, if any coach in the country is built for ensuring a team is fully prepared and never overlooking an opponent, that man would be Cignetti. Regardless, Indiana appears to be on upset watch in Week 5 for a contest it can ill-afford to drop.

Published
Jackson Langendorf
JACKSON LANGENDORF

Home/Football