ESPN Analytics Forecast Indiana’s Chances in CFP Title Against Miami

Indiana looks to take down Miami, in its own house, and secure its first national championship in football

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti is interviewed as confetti falls Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, after defeating the Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For the third time in his two years at Indiana, Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers will play a team that played in the National Championship game next Monday night.

Of course, Indiana dropped just two games in Cignetti's first season, falling at Ohio State and Notre Dame, before those two met in last year's championship round.

This year Cignetti has the Hoosiers playing in the actual game, where it takes on the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Cignetti and the Hoosiers dropped those two games a year ago, but what happens when they play their third finalist next Monday night?

The ESPN Football Power Index has updated its numbers ahead of the final game of the college football season, and let's just say it sees good things for the Boys from Bloomington.

ESPN FPI Projects Indiana vs. Miami

For the final time this year, we have what the computers say will happen for an Indiana football team.

For reference, the only game ESPN FPI picked Indiana to lose all season by the week of the actual game was when it went to Oregon in October. It gave the Hoosiers just a 30.5% chance of winning at Autzen Stadium back in October, but has been big on the Hoosiers every game since.

That trend continues for Monday night's College Football Playoff National Championship game as FPI gives the Hoosiers a 68.3% chance of beating Miami.

For reference, FPI gave Indiana only a hair better chance of beating Alabama in the Rose Bowl (71.4%) and a slightly less chance of beating Oregon in the Peach Bowl (66.9%).

Betting Odds Favor Indiana in National Championship

As you'd expect based on the destruction Indiana has caused on its way to the College Football Playoff National Championship game, the Hoosiers are a sizeable favorite according to the oddsmakers.

Currently on DraftKings, Indiana is a 8.5 point favorite over the hometown Hurricanes, with the total for the game currently sitting at 48.5 points.

8.5 seems like a ton of points for the two teams that have managed to get through the playoff, but also feels like nothing for a team that has advanced by beating a couple of top-ten teams by a combined score of 94-25 its last two games.

The Mendoza-Becker connection. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/VTrJREHhLM

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) January 10, 2026

Kickoff for the College Football Playoff National Championship game is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 19, and can be seen on ESPN as the Hoosiers play for the crown.