Jack's Take: Final Three Indiana Football Games Determine Program’s Future

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Tom Allen will tell you every week that Indiana has its most important game “because it’s the next one.”

One of the coach’s favorite sayings is perhaps rooted more in keeping his players motivated and focused on their weekly tasks than it is in reality. Because for a program whose standard of success is bowl eligibility, seasons hinge much more on games like this Saturday’s than a few weeks ago at No. 2 Michigan, where Indiana hasn’t won since 1967.

That’s why Saturday’s game at Illinois (4-5), followed by a home game against Michigan State (3-6) and the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game at Purdue (2-7) represent the most important stretch of the 2023 Indiana football season, and perhaps Allen’s seven-year tenure at Indiana.

Last week’s 20-14 win over Wisconsin only confirms the impact of these upcoming games on the future of the program. The win kept Indiana’s bowl eligibility hopes alive, and each of the next three are winnable. Lose them all, and the program will have to once again start from scratch.

Indiana’s remaining opponents rank similarly in both predictive and results-based metrics. In the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), which measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results, the teams rank nationally as follows: Illinois (67), Indiana (68), Purdue (72) and Michigan State (78). Their strength of record rankings aren’t too different, either: Illinois (67), Indiana (79), Michigan State (88), Purdue (92).

Saturday’s point spread against Illinois has moved to 6.5 in favor of the Illini, and the following two weeks against Michigan State and Purdue will be even closer, with the possibility of Indiana being favored. Needing to win three games in a row makes the task increasingly difficult, and anything from 3-0 to 0-3 wouldn’t be that surprising. Each game is up for grabs.

If Indiana can win all three and pull off a four-game win streak to end the season, it’ll qualify for a bowl game – something that felt impossible for most of this season. Some 2-6 squads would have given up before the Wisconsin game, but that’s not this program’s style under Allen. He’s used the phrase “earmuffs and blinders” throughout his tenure to refer to blocking outside noise – good or bad – and staying focused on each week.

“Whether it’s pats on the back from last week or continued criticism for other things,” Allen said. “You can’t allow that to be a variable that affects the way you respond on a daily basis.”

In an even bigger sense than potentially earning the right to play a 13th game, Indiana’s final three games will decide the direction of the program.

If it loses all three, Indiana will have gone 9-27 in a three-year span with just three wins over Power 5 opponents: a last-minute touchdown drive against Illinois, a four-overtime win at Michigan State, and a six-point win over a Wisconsin team playing with its backup quarterback and without star running back Braelon Allen.

That’s unacceptable for a Big Ten program, and it would wipe out any good will left from 2019 and 2020. Indiana would then be posed with a decision it won’t happily or easily make in the form of Allen’s $20.8 million buyout, if fired Dec. 1, 2023. The buyout drops to $7.95 million after Dec. 1, 2024.

This final portion of the season also has Indiana hoping it can find an answer to a seemingly never-ending starting quarterback question it’s asked itself for the better part of three seasons. Most recently, it’s been redshirt freshman quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who won his first game as a starter last week.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pound Sorsby has shown some promise and growth, but it’s too early to definitively call him Indiana’s quarterback of the future. Sorsby’s coaches and teammates love his physical running style, but his passing game needs considerable improvement.

After flip-flopping quarterbacks in the early portion of the season, Sorsby has a stronger hold on the job than any Hoosier has had this season. It’s his job to lose, both this year and in future years.

But if Indiana sputters in the final weeks, it could go back to square one, wondering if Sorsby, Tayven Jackson or Dexter Williams II can get the job done. Allen and staff have struggled to solidify the quarterback position for three years now, and that adds to the difficult decision surrounding Allen’s standing in Bloomington.

Quarterback isn’t the only position of impact. The success or failure of these final three weeks will go a long way in determining whether droves of Hoosiers head to the transfer portal, or if Indiana becomes a more attractive destination for players seeking a new home.

Even more broadly, the same is true for Indiana fans who’ve shown their support with several sellouts in recent years but are losing patience after three disappointing seasons. Scroll through social media, and it’s clear even fans who still have a soft spot for Allen are fed up.

So heading into the conclusion of the 2023 season, Indiana has momentum that’s priceless in college sports. Turning that into three wins and bowl eligibility or falling back to the bottom of the Big Ten are both potential outcomes. By the end of this stretch, we will know which direction Indiana football is headed.

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