GameDay Prediction: Can Indiana Continue Its Winning Ways on the Road at Michigan State?
EAST LANSING, Mich. — We've talked often about what it takes for Indiana to become relevant in the Big Ten in football. And the common thread throughout that conversation was being able to able to cross that line of demarcation in the Big Ten East, which is arguably the toughest division in America.
The haves in the division have a century-plus of football greatness at places like Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. They have nots? Well, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers have clearly been unable to make noise.
Until now.
The Hoosiers have already knocked off Penn State and Michigan as underdogs during the first three weeks of the season, as 6-point underdogs to the Nittany Lions and 3.5-point dogs to the Wolverines.
And now come the Spartans, who are 1-2 and haven't looked very good thus far under first-year coach Mel Tucker. They have a win against Michigan, but two eye-searing losses to Rutgers and Iowa. Indiana is favored by 7.5 points on Saturday morning on the DraftKings.com website.
One more shot at the big boys is different this time around, so different. For instance, when Indiana came to Michigan State last season, the Hoosiers were 14-point underdogs. They lost 40-31, but that score was deceiving, since the Spartans scored nine points in the final five seconds.
The history is not deceiving. Indiana hasn't won at East Lansing since 2001, having lost eight games in a row. But the Hoosiers have been great at erasing history this season so far. Here's another chance.
As you know, I've been all over the Hoosiers from the beginning this season. And it's not a root, root, root for the home team not, because as anyone knows when it comes to picking winners against a point spread, betting with your heart instead of your head is dangerous.
I've been going simply by facts. This Indiana football team is for real. The Hoosiers have more talent and depth and every position than they've had in years, They have skill-position people who are better than what the bluebloods have right now.
They are 3-0 for a reason. Sure, they found a way late against Penn State and got the call on the final play, but they pushed Rutgers and Michigan around. The 3-0 is real. The No. 10 national ranking is real. The 3-0 record against the spread is also real.
And that's why you're here, right?
When we updated the schedule and point spreads on Thursday, I told you it was something of a big deal that the opening line had gone from 9.5 to 7. The 7 number was big. I don't gamble myself, of course, but my friend Walter Ego was thrilled that the descent to 7 happened. He jumped on it on Thursday with a big wager and is locked in. He also locked in on Iowa (minus-3) and Penn State (minus-3) early in the week and went to play golf for a couple of days. Walter was 10-2 on Big Ten games coming into the week. (Walter sent a text from the 10th hole on Saturday morning that he took a small bite on Purdue plus-4 as well.)
I'm all on board with that. I firmly believe Indiana isn't looking ahead one bit. Ohio State is next week, but Michigan State is still the singular focus. They remember the bitter loss up here a year ago, and they don't want that to happen again.
It's the Big Ten, and you have to earn every win, but I feel like the Hoosiers will do that. Michigan State has 10 turnovers in its two losses, and I see Indiana's enterprising defense continuing that trend.
I also see Michael Penix Jr. having a really big day. He should have time to thrown and will be ready to spread the ball around.
I'll be honest. I think the Hoosiers are clearly the better team here. I do think they'll win comfortably, scoring often on short fields.
My choice: I like Indiana, 34-17. And take that to the bank.
Here's what's going on in the rest of the Big Ten today, including another time change.
Penn State at Nebraska
- GAMETIME: Noon ET
- TV: FOX Sports 1
- RECORDS: Penn State (0-3); Nebraska (0-2)
- LAST WEEK: Penn State lost to Maryland 35-19; Nebraska lost to Northwestern 21-13.
- OPENING LINE: Penn State minus-3.5
- SATURDAY'S LINE: Penn State minus-3
- THE SKINNY: Not much movement here with two teams who both desperately need a win. Both teams are still trying to figure out the best way to score points, and who the quarterback should be the make some plays. Penn State had a socially-distanced in-person team meeting Tuesday, which seems to have given them a spark. "I felt as connected with the team on Tuesday after having an in-person meeting as I've felt in a while," Franklin said. ".You know, we just felt like that needed to change. I think they felt better, and I know I felt better. I know I felt better getting in front of them face to face." They might rally around the news that popular running back Journey Brown has been forced to retire because of a heart condition. Win one for him here.
Illinois at Rutgers
- GAMETIME: Noon ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
- RECORDS: Illinois (0-3); Rutgers (1-2)
- LAST WEEK: Illinois lost to Minnesota 41-14; Rutgers lost to Ohio State 49-27.
- OPENING LINE: Rutgers minus-6.5
- THURSDAY'S LINE: Rutgers minus 6
- THE SKINNY: The is rarified air for Rutgers, being favored in a Big Ten game. The Scarlet Knights snapped a 21-game conference losing streak in the opener, but then lost to Indiana and Ohio State, the two best teams in the league who are a combined 6-0. They're back in their weight group with Illinois, but it's rare to see them favored, especially by so much. The big thing here for Rutgers is to get some consistency on offense, both with personnel and results. Look for a big day from running back Isaiah Pacheco.
Wisconsin at Michigan
- GAMETIME: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- RECORDS: Wisconsin (1-0); Michigan (1-2)
- LAST WEEK: Wisconsin did not play; Michigan lost to Indiana 38-21.
- OPENING LINE: Wisconsin minus-1.5
- THURSDAY'S LINE: Wisconsin minus-6.5
- THE SKINNY: Welcome back to the party, Badgers. Wisconsin has missed its last two games because of COVID issues, but they seem to be ready to play with most everyone back, including quarterback Graham Mertz, and the line has reflected that.. Mertz tested positive but has been cleared to return. His 21-day window ends on Friday, and coach Paul Chryst said he'll be able to practice some and should be ready. He was 20-for-21 passing in his one game, so his return is likely moving the needle on that point spread.
Northwestern at Purdue
- GAMETIME: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
- RECORDS: Northwestern (3-0); Purdue (2-0)
- LAST WEEK: Northwestern beat Nebraska 21-13; Purdue did not play.
- OPENING LINE: Northwestern minus-1.5
- THURSDAY'S LINE: Northwestern minus-4
- THE SKINNY: This game has a lot of Big Ten West repercussions between these two unbeaten teams. Not much movement in the line thus far, with the edge still going to the Wildcats, who have found a way to win every week, even while not playing their best. Comeback wins over Iowa and Nebraska have been impressive, and you like seeing teams overcome adversity to find a way to win. Purdue's offense has been very good, and I do think they're still flying under the radar quite a bit. Purdue bettors are hoping this line ticks up a little more. We'll have to see if that happens.
Ohio State at Maryland
- GAMETIME: Canceled (COVID-19)
- TV: Big Ten Network
- RECORDS: Ohio State (3-0); Maryland (2-1)
- LAST WEEK: Ohio State beat Rutgers 49-27; Maryland beat Penn State 35-19.
