GameDay Prediction: Can Indiana Close Out Dream Season in Style Against Ole Miss?

This has been an incredible football season for Indiana, a 6-1 year where they have slayed a lot demons and erased a lot of long losing streaks along the way. The final game is Saturday against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl.

TAMPA, Fla. – There are several ties to Indiana football and the Tampa Bay area, most notably head coach Tom Allen, who's lived here twice during his coaching career. But there are also almost a dozen IU players who call the area home, too.

So do I.

When I graduated from Indiana in 1980, my first newspaper job was down here at the St. Petersburg Times. Clearwater and its surrounding communities is where I called home for 27 years of my adult life.

The Outback Bowl is a Tampa Bay staple, and the bowl game has been going on here for 35 years now. I was at the first one in 1986 when it was called the Hall of Fame Bowl, and the second and third, too. I've been to about 15 games, either working or as a fan.

I've watched Ohio State and Michigan play here, and Iowa and Wisconsin, too. I've even watched Purdue play here, when Drew Brees and Vinny Sutherland lost the Y2K game to Georgia in overtime. Penn State, Northwestern and Minnesota have played here, too.

But never Indiana.

At long last, my two homes meld into one when Tom Allen brings his 2020 Hoosiers team to Tampa, something he's always wanted to do. It's great for many of his players who call Tampa home too, like stars Michael Penix Jr., Whop Philyor, Micah McFadden and so many more. 

There will be friends and family everywhere today, and that's what bowl  games are all about. It means so much this year, especially, because this is the first game all season where Indiana will play in front of thousands of fans. It's our first touch of reality.

But it's also a huge game, because there is a lot at stake. Indiana is 6-1 during this truncated season, and finishing 7-1 sounds much better than 6-2. That would be the second-best record in school history, behind only the 1945 Hoosiers who went 9-0-1.

That's something to brag about there.

What's also at stake is finishing in the top-5 in the final Associated Press poll, something the Hoosiers have never done before. Back in 1967 when the Hoosiers won the Big Ten, they were ranked No. 4 in the country before the Rose Bowl game against USC and O.J. Simpson. They lost that game 14-3, but there was no post-bowl poll back then. So this would be a first.

It's Ole Miss that stands in the way. The Rebels are just 4-5 this season, but they do have an explosive offense led by quarterback Matt Corral. But their defense is among the worst in the country and Corral will turn the ball over.

To me, predicting this game is a no-brainer. Indiana was a 7.5-point favorite when the game was announced. I was stunned it went down to 6.5 the first few days, but after more opt-out and injury news, the Hoosiers are now 10-point favorites on game day.

You come to my for advice on the Hoosiers, and I predicted all six games perfectly to start the season, even though IU was an underdog four times. My only miss was the Wisconsin game on Dec. 5 – Indiana's most-recent game — where I guessed wrong on how they'd do in Madison in Jack Tuttle''s first start. Indiana won 14-6, and I was glad to be wrong.

That point-spread jump in the Ole Miss game doesn't bother me one bit, because there are three things at play here:

1. Turnovers: Indiana leads the nation in interceptions and on third-and-long situations. That's trouble for Matt Corral, who has thrown 14 picks this season. I think Indiana's secondary has a field day today.
2. Defense: The Ole Miss defense is horrible, allowing 40.3 points a game. It ranks No. 122 out of 127 FBS teams, and only Kansas is worse among all Power 5 schools. I think Indiana's offense goes up and down the field all day.
3. Disrespect: Tom Allen and the Hoosiers have felt slighted by both the College Football Playoff committee and the Big Ten during this entire postseason process, from the league not following the rules on Ohio State's eligibility for the conference title game to the pecking order for Big Ten bowl slots. They come to Tampa with laser-like focus and are firmly entrenched in making a statement in their final game together.

That's why picking this game, for me, is easy. Don't worry about the 10. I think Indiana scores on a majority of its drives and the IU defense forces at least three turnovers. Ole Miss is just missing too many pieces, and we've seen what happens when rosters get too depleted in bowl games.

This one will be fun. I've got Indiana 51, Ole Miss 24. 

Enjoy it.