Indiana’s Updated Playoff Odds via ESPN FPI — Here’s What to Know After Week 1

Indiana was cruised to victory in the season-opener against Old Dominion

Aug 30, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti walks along the sideline during the first half against the Old Dominion Monarchs at Memorial Stadium. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana's season opener against Old Dominion came and went over the weekend with the Hoosiers cruising to victory despite the final score being closer than the overall play probably indicated.

Indiana has a couple of injuries to now have to deal with at the safety position, something we'll take a look at later today. Kennesaw State also awaits the Hoosiers on Saturday, for a noon kickoff in Bloomington.

What did the computers think about Indiana's win this past Saturday? Here are the latest ESPN Football Playoff Index (FPI) odds for Indiana in each game the rest of the season, as well as to ultimately return to the College Football Playoff.

ESPN FPI Projects Indiana's Remaining 2025 Season

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kennesaw State - Sept. 6

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 94.6%, Kennesaw State 5.4%

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Indiana State Sycamores - Sept. 12

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 99.0%, Indiana State 1.0%

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini - Sept. 20

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 60.7%, Illinois 39.3%

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes - Sept. 27

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 47.4%, Iowa 52.6%

Indiana Hoosiers at Oregon Ducks - Oct. 11

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 14.2%, Oregon 85.8%

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans - Oct. 18

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 76.1%, Michigan State 23.9%

Indiana Hoosiers vs. UCLA Bruins - Oct. 25

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 87.5%, UCLA 12.5%

Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins - Nov. 1

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 54.6%, Maryland 45.4%

Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions - Nov. 8

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 16.0%, Penn State 84.0%

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers - Nov. 15

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 60.7%, Wisconsin 39.3%

Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers - Nov. 29

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 76.7%, Purdue 23.3%

ESPN FPI on Indiana's Big Ten, College Football Playoff Chances:

Indiana current FPI ranking: 30, down five spots from last week

FPI projected final regular season record for Indiana: 7.9-4.1

Indiana's chances to win 6 or more games: 96.5%

Indiana's chances to win Big Ten: 0.6%

Make College Football Playoff: 7.4%

Make National Championship Game: 0.5%

Win National Championship: 0.1%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway:

While it's debatable how much home-field advantage matters in a game, it's undeniable that it's a large part of the FPI formula. I get Indiana being a big underdog at both Oregon and Penn State, but I was surprised to see Iowa listed as the projected favorite.

Indiana is right there to be a pain in a lot of the Big Ten's side this year, but getting trips to both Oregon and Penn State landed them no favors. If the Hoosiers can get by Illinois in mid-September though, 10-2 is not out of question and nor would a return trip to the CFP.