Is Indiana a CFP Lock? Path Ahead Before Oregon Showdown

The Hoosiers have a few routes that will take them to the College Football Playoff. Here are their options:

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) runs for the end zone on a 49-yard touchdown reception late during the fourth quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Can Indiana make back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances? That was the question swirling around Bloomington heading into the 2025 campaign. Through five games, the answer would be a hard yes. 

In fact, the Hoosiers have opened up this campaign looking even better than they did a year ago. Not only do they have a 53-point rout of a top-10 team to their name (beat Illinois 63-10 in Week 4), but Curt Cignetti’s club also added a stellar 20-15 road win over a tough Iowa team to its resume in Week 5. 

A relentless defense. pic.twitter.com/eOERHIo5NQ

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) October 5, 2025

Now, after a week off, No. 7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) is poised for its toughest matchup of the year: on the road at Autzen Stadium against No. 3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten). 

Ahead of the colossal contest vs. the Ducks, here’s an updated College Football Playoff outlook for the Hoosiers – and their potential routes to the CFP:

Win out

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti celebrates after defeating the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

This one is quite simple. If Indiana finishes the regular season 12-0, it’s obviously a shoo-in for the CFP – and potentially the top-ranked team in the country. 

Fall to Oregon, then win out

Indiana's Isaiah Jones (46) and the Hoosiers celebrate D'Angelo Ponds (5) touchdownn during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Playing Oregon close would be ideal, but even if Indiana was blown out, a big loss on the road against a top-3 team isn’t going to knock the Hoosiers out of the CFP mix altogether.

And, if they manage to cruise through the rest of their schedule and knock off Penn State at Happy Valley, then they’d still be a 100-percent lock for the coveted postseason tournament. 

Beat Oregon, fall to Penn State

Head Coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana versus Illinois football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025 | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This situation would be trickier, but, despite Penn State’s head-scratching two-game skid, falling on the road to Penn State isn’t going to be a stain on Indiana’s resume – especially if it owns wins on the road at Oregon and at home vs. Illinois. An 11-1 Indiana team with its sole loss at Happy Valley would still be a CFP guarantee. 

Fall to Oregon and Penn State, then win out

Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

In this scenario, Indiana would be relying on a handful of external circumstances to ensure it still gets into the CFP.

Assuming Penn State loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers would still be in over a three-loss Nittany Lions squad, but their fate would be determined by the number of bids other conferences receive, along with how Notre Dame finishes out its season.

The Hoosiers would be far from a lock if they took this route, but would still have a chance (probably fifty-fifty odds). 

In the end, all Indiana has to do is win. Now, with road matchups at Oregon and Penn State still on the docket, winning out is an extremely tall task. 

But, even without a W in Eugene this weekend, the Hoosiers would still control their fate. That said, if Indiana wants to ensure it's in the CFP, Penn State is a must-win, otherwise a two-loss Hoosiers team will be on the edge of their seats come early December.