Indiana vs. Alabama: ESPN FPI Reveals Rose Bowl Odds for 2025 Matchup

Will the No. 1 Hoosiers take down blueblood Alabama en route to the semi-finals?

Dec 13, 2025; New York, NY, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (left) and head coach Curt Cignetti pose for photos with the Heisman trophy during a press conference at the New York Marriott Marquis after Mendoza wins the award. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

For just the second time in the long history of Indiana University football, the Hoosiers are headed to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl.

This trip will come in the form of a national quarterfinal game in the College Football Playoff against blueblood Alabama, with a spot in the national semi-finals on the line.

Can what has been a dream season for the Hoosiers get that much dreamier with a win over one of college football's most historic programs, in perhaps the game's most historic setting?

ESPN has released their chances of victory in each of the four quarterfinal games and sees good things for the mighty Hoosiers.

ESPN FPI Projects Rose Bowl Between Indiana and Alabama

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers celebrate after the Indiana versus Ohio State Big Ten Championship football game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN's Football Power Index has been updated for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals and seems to really like Indiana's chances of advancing to the next round.

The forecast gives Indiana a 71.4% chance of victory for Thursday's Rose Bowl game, meaning Alabama receives just a 28.6% shot.

For comparison, ESPN FPI gave Indiana a 50.6% chance at victory before the Big Ten Championship, a game it won in thrilling fashion over Ohio State, 13-10.

The formula ranks Indiana as the nation's top team with Alabama currently checking in at No. 8.

ESPN FPI Handicaps National Championship Chances for College Football Playoff

Despite sitting with the No. 1 ranking nationally according to ESPN FPI, Indiana doesn't have the best odds to win the national championship. While the outlet currently gives the Hoosiers a 23.9% chance to win it all, and a 40% chance to make the national title game, Ohio State is given slightly better chances of both.

Ohio State's 44.8% chance of making the national championship game is tops on ESPN FPI, as is its 25.8% chance to win it all.

A strong reason for that is likely because Indiana would play the winner of Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the national semi-final, a slightly tougher game according to the formula than Ohio State, who would play either Georgia or Ole Miss, assuming it beats Miami in the Cotton Bowl.

National Championship Odds for Remaining College Football Playoff Teams - ESPN FPI:

1. Ohio State: 25.8%
2. Indiana: 23.9%
3. Oregon: 11.7%
4. Georgia: 10.6%
5. Texas Tech: 10.1%
6. Miami (FL): 7.2%
7. Ole Miss: 5.5%
8. Alabama: 5.2%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

For as much as those in the SEC want to tell you otherwise, the conference with the most top-end talent in terms of teams is the Big Ten. The numbers reflect that as the top-three teams in terms of championship odds are all from the Big Ten, while two of the three remaining SEC teams check in the final two spots.

Indiana has shown time and time again this year that it's a legitimate national championship contender, and the numbers are there to back it up.

How Indiana replaces star defensive lineman Stephen Daley remains to be seen and is cause for some concern, but not enough for me to be too concerned about its chances against an Alabama team that has struggled to run the ball for much of the year.