Todd’s Take: Indiana Football Is On The Wrong End Of Brand Name Bias

Indiana and Notre Dame are two teams that are relatively even between the lines, but conventional wisdom gives the Fighting Irish the benefit of the doubt.

Todd Golden | Dec 17, 2024

Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman James Carpenter (99) celebrates his run for a first down with teammates in the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Maybe I’m too close, maybe I’m too immersed within the Indiana football bubble, but when I try to gauge the conventional wisdom on how the Indiana-Notre Dame College Football Playoff game might play out, this is my perception.

Plaudits are given for Indiana’s incredible improvement from a 3-9 to an 11-1 season. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti gets his flowers and usually has his occasionally brash statements given out-size attention over the football coachspeak he usually falls back on. You might get a mention of Kurtis Rourke while the praise is being doled out because quarterbacks always get the pub.

Then? Whoever it is doing the talking goes on to say that Notre Dame is going to win the game.

In analyses I’ve seen – and I certainly haven’t seen it all – there’s two lines of thinking. One of them is a kind of pat-on-the-head, condescending tone. A sort of, “Thanks for playing, Indiana, but we’re going to roll with the brand name we know.”

Another is a kind of hesitance to pick Indiana over fear of being exposed when the clock strikes midnight for the Hoosiers. Despite its record, Indiana still feels like a risky bet to some experts given their new status on the national stage.

Conventional wisdom goes beyond just national TV talking heads or talk radio hosts.

It’s always a bit shaky to use a point spread as a barometer – given that spreads aren’t necessarily a prediction of an outcome but are set to encourage a 50/50 betting pool. There will be a ton of casual bettors who will plunk their cash down for their beloved Hoosiers or Irish, so take it with a grain of salt, but the oddsmakers have Notre Dame as a 7.5-point favorite.

Fans gather in front of the Word of Life mural, commonly known as Touchdown Jesus, before the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Northern Illinois Huskies at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

There’s no need to wrack my brain very much to understand why Notre Dame gets the seemingly automatic favorite’s role. Notre Dame is an established football brand. Indiana is not.

From the outsider, non-Indiana point of view, the Hoosiers are the team that has to prove itself. Notre Dame has historically proven itself as a national brand – though nowhere near to the point they’re sometimes given credit for in the 21st Century, but I digress.

On a certain level, I completely understand it. I doubt anyone on the national stage watched Indiana much before its game at Ohio State on Nov. 23. Knowledge of the Hoosiers remains mile-wide and inch-deep, which is why there’s a focus on Cignetti’s occasional antics and the whole Cinderella vibe.

Being fair? Were I not a reporter covering Indiana as my job, I would probably be in the same boat as far as my own perception of the Hoosiers.

However, there is plenty of data out there for those who want to delve into this matchup on more than a surface level. The data suggests this will be a very close contest.

This is a fascinating clash of strengths vs. strengths. Indiana has a great run defense, best in the nation after giving up 70.8 yards per game, by far the best of any College Football Playoff team. Notre Dame has a potent rushing offense, 10th-best nationally at 224.8 yards per game.

Rourke is the most efficient quarterback in the country with an efficiency rating of 181.3, and he leads the second-best scoring offense in FBS at 43.3 points per game.

Conversely, Notre Dame ranks 3rd nationally in scoring defense at 13.58 points conceded and 9th nationally in total defense at 296.8 yards conceded. The Fighting Irish are particularly adept at stopping passing attacks. They rank third in pass defense at 157.9 yards per game.

Turnovers? Both teams have been wildly successful in winning this battle game-to-game. Notre Dame is ranked second nationally at plus-1.33 per game. Indiana ranks fourth at plus-1.25.

Indiana does do a better job on returns – a 21.8 kickoff return average vs. Notre Dame’s 16.9 and an 11.6 punt return average vs. Notre Dame’s 5.3. However, the Fighting Irish rank seventh nationally in kick return defense and 22nd in punt return defense – well ahead of Indiana on both fronts.

Indiana Hoosiers place kicker Nicolas Radicic (39) gets ready to hit a field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Memorial Stadium. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Indiana placekicker Nicolas Radicic has been close to perfect as he’s converted 9 of 10 field goal attempts and all 69 of his extra points. Notre Dame kickers Mitch Jeter and Zac Yoakam have combined to make just 8 of 17 field goals, but the Fighting Irish make up some of the special teams gap with a co-FBS-high six blocked kicks.

Indiana and Notre Dame go about their business in different ways, but the numbers suggest a very even contest on Friday night – and the numbers aren’t skewed by a difference in competition level, either.

Neither 11-1 team played a great schedule – ESPN rates Notre Dame’s schedule 60th and Indiana’s 67th.

Notre Dame has an edge in quality wins, but only just. A Notre Dame win at Texas A&M in Week 1 trumps any single Indiana win, but it’s not as if the Fighting Irish beat Indiana with a royal flush over a pair of 3s.

In the ESPN Strength Of Record rankings, the Aggies are only nine spots above Michigan, the best team the Hoosiers defeated.

Indiana and Notre Dame can both claim record routs over a very poor Purdue team for whatever that’s worth.

After that, Indiana got the benefit of a very poor nonconference slate and a kind Big Ten schedule. Besides Texas A&M, Notre Dame played a score of mediocre ACC teams, one middling Big Ten team (Southern California) and Navy and Army, who were ranked when Notre Dame beat them, but probably a bit too high in both cases, as evidenced by the 37- and 35-point Irish victories.

Notre Dame also infamously went 1-1 against the Mid-American Conference, with that embarrassing 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 being a millstone around it’s neck that Indiana doesn’t carry.

The point is that their credentials aren’t altogether different. Their numbers were compiled against similar-level competition.

Notre Dame will have the obvious benefit of playing Indiana at home. If someone were to use home-field advantage as a tiebreaker in choosing who will win, I couldn’t fault the logic.

However, in nearly every other way, these two teams are very close to one another in quality. Someone can make a legitimate, between-the-lines case for either team to win based on the data.

However, data very rarely has a speaking part when it comes to conventional wisdom. Folks go with what they know, and they know they’ve watched Notre Dame football on TV their whole lives while Indiana went about its business in comparative and mostly deserved obscurity.

Brand name bias? It’s real, and Indiana is on the wrong end of it. That’s life, but that’s also something Indiana can use as motivation. The conventional wisdom that Notre Dame will win because they’re Notre Dame might give these Hoosiers that chip on their shoulder they so adore.

Cignetti and the Hoosiers probably wouldn’t want it any other way.

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