Biggest X-Factors for Iowa State To Win Big 12 Tournament

The Iowa State Cyclones wrapped up one of the best regular seasons in the history of the men’s basketball program with an 86-65 victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils during Senior Day in Ames.

It was the team’s 25th victory of the campaign, capping off what was a historic year after winning their first 16 games in a row. However, the job is far from done.

The Cyclones are now set to begin postseason play, starting with the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament in Kansas City, Missouri. This is a golden opportunity for Iowa State to add a few more premier victories to its resume and move up the seed line for the NCAA tournament.

What will it take to make a deep run? Here are four x-factors that will impact the Cyclones’ ability to win their conference tournament.

Free Throw Shooting

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson shooting free throw. — Jan 7, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) shoots a free throw during the second half against the Baylor Bears at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

This has been an Achilles’ heel for Iowa State throughout the entire campaign. During Big 12 play, they got to the foul line at an above-average rate compared to their conference peers, ranking sixth with 20 attempts per game.

However, they were only ninth in makes with 13.4 and ranked even worse in percentage. Their 67.2% was 15th. For the year, the Cyclones made only 68.0% of their free throws, which ranked 327th in the nation.

Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson get to the foul line the most, combining for 10 attempts per game, but make only 6.9 of them. Blake Buchanan shoots under 50%.

This is a troubling trend that could swing the momentum in a game if they don’t convert.

Killyan Toure

No one was surprised when T.J. Otzelberger turned to a freshman in the backcourt, starting alongside Lipsey. What shocked everyone was which freshman he chose.

It wasn’t Jamarion Batemon, the highest-rated player in their Class of 2026. Instead, it was Killyan Toure, an unheralded player from Brewester Academy, who set the tone with his defensive impact.

He was excellent at the beginning of the season, but as the season progressed, his impact waned. His playing time dipped as his shooting woes grew. Feb. 16 against the Houston Cougars was the last time he made a 3-pointer. Jan. 24 against the Oklahoma State Cowboys is the last time he made multiple in a game.

Opponents are ignoring him in their defensive game plans and daring him to shoot. If he can knock down a few jump shots, it will open things up for everyone around him.

Rebounding

Iowa State Cyclones center Blake Buchanan, guard Jamarion Batemon fight for rebound with Kansas Jayhawks center Flory Bidunga — Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) and guard Jamarion Batemon (1) battle with Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) during the second half in the Big-12 conference basketball showdown on Feb. 14, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa State isn’t the biggest team, ranking in the middle of the road in rebounding all season. However, where they do excel is keeping their opponents off the glass, ranking 24th in the country while allowing only 31 total rebounds per game.

This is an x-factor because when they are outrebounded, they tend to lose games. In their six regular-season losses, the Cyclones lost the rebounding battle each time. In their victories, they were outrebounded only five times, tying their opponent once.

If they can control the boards, they can maintain tempo in the game and give themselves a better chance of coming away victorious.

3-Point Shooting

Iowa State Cyclones forward Milan Momcilovic shooting over Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Donovan Atwell. — Iowa State Cyclones forward Milan Momcilovic (22) takes a three-point shot over Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Donovan Atwell (12) during the first half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Throughout the season, Iowa State has been one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. However, that comes with a bit of a caveat; Milan Momcilovic was doing most of that damage on his own.

He broke the Cyclones’ single-season record for 3-pointers made with 114 and counting. The junior sharpshooter connected on 50% of his attempts to lead the country. His teammates were a combined 162-of-492, coming out to only 32.9%.

With Momcilovic, Iowa State ranks 16th, making 38.3% of its attempts from behind the arc. Without him, they would rank 249th.

Others need to start knocking down some 3-pointers to open up this offense that has been heading in the wrong direction.