Iowa State Cyclones Shockingly Jumped by Big Ten Teams in Latest Bracketology

The Iowa State Cyclones have not had an easy schedule recently, which has led to some losses stacking up.

Their loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in their most recent contest was their second loss in three games. A win over the Utah Utes on the road is sandwiched between losses to Texas Tech and the BYU Cougars, also on the road.

Right before this stretch, the Cyclones picked up two incredibly impressive victories, defeating the Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars, both at Hilton Coliseum. It was two excellent bounce-back performances after losing on the road to the TCU Horned Frogs.

Alas, being defeated by the Red Raiders at home seems to have had a massive impact on Iowa State. As shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, they have now dropped off the two-seed line in Bracketology projections, getting jumped by the Michigan State Spartans and Illinois Fighting Illini.

Iowa State jumped by Michigan State, Illinois in Bracketology predictions

Mar 1, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo talks with Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) against the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Seeing the Tom Izzo-led Spartans move up isn’t too surprising. They are having an excellent season at 24-5 and have won four games in a row, including a victory over the Purdue Boilermakers, who were ranked No. 8 at the time.

Being the No. 7-ranked team in the field and moving ahead of the Cyclones after a loss is understandable. However, Iowa State being jumped by Illinois is hard to fathom.

The Fighting Illini are 22-7 thus far and have lost two games in a row to the UCLA Bruins and Michigan Wolverines. Despite the losing streak, they have been bumped up to a two-seed by Lunardi.

It has been over a month since Illinois beat a ranked opponent: Feb. 1 on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Their other victories since that point are over the Northwestern Wildcats, Indiana Hoosiers and USC Trojans, who are Nos. 72, 41 and 63 in the NET Rankings, respectively.

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— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 2, 2026

UCLA is No. 39 in those rankings. While not a resume-ruining loss, certainly was not a defeat that would normally be rewarded with a bump in rankings for the NCAA tournament, especially when taking into consideration that Texas Tech is No. 13.

Figuring out seed lines and rankings isn’t an easy thing to do. But it is certainly peculiar that the Fighting Illini moved up while on a two-game losing streak, while one defeat against a premier opponent has dropped Iowa State so significantly.

The Cyclones’ matchup with the Arizona Wildcats on Big Monday has become that much more important. Lunardi noted that the one seeds are all but locked up, but it sounds as if T.J. Otzelberger and his squad have some work to do to get back to being a No. 2 seed, which is the lowest they had been for over a month.