Iowa State Holds Steady Despite Major Shakeup in Bracketology Predictions

Some major shakeups in the AP Poll haven't led to any changes for the Iowa State Cyclones in recent Bracketology predictions.

Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) celebrates with Iowa State Cyclones forward Killyan Toure (27) after a dunk against Baylor during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball on Feb. 7, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones have been playing some great basketball over the last few weeks, pushing their record to 21-2 on the season.

They have won five straight games, including three victories by at least 30 points over the UCF Knights, Colorado Buffaloes and Kansas State Wildcats. That has helped them get back on track after a two-game losing streak, being defeated by the Kansas Jayhawks and Cincinnati Bearcats on the road.

Those losses ended up resulting in Iowa State dropping from a No. 1 seed in Bracketology projections. They fell as low as No. 3, but have moved back up to No. 2 in predictions shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

In the most recent update from Lundari, the Cyclones are holding steady as a No. 2 seed for the fifth consecutive update. They remain in the Midwest Region, set to play first weekend games in St. Louis.

Iowa State remains No. 2 seed in Joe Lunardi Bracketology predictions

Feb 1, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger look at the scoreboard during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum. | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Right now, matching up against them as the No. 15 seed in the region is the Austin Peay Governors, the automatic qualifiers from the Atlantic Sun Conference.

Should Iowa State get past that game into the Round of 32, they would play against a Blue Blood program; either the No. 7 seed Kentucky Wildcats, an at-large team from the SEC, or the No. 10 UCLA Bruins, an at-large team from the Big Ten.

Down the line, depending on how games would shake out, the Cyclones could be in line for a rematch. The No. 5 seed in the Midwest Region is predicted to be the St. John’s Red Storm, the projected automatic qualifier from the Big East. The Cyclones faced off against the Red Storm in their first game of the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas earlier this season.

The No. 9 seed in the region is UCF, which Iowa State throttled to end its two-game losing streak. A rematch in the NCAA Tournament against them would take some massive upsets, the biggest of which would be taking down the No. 1-seeded Michigan Wolverines.

Cyclones will have chance to move up seed line

Iowa State Cyclones forward Killyan Toure (27) gets congratulation from men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger during the second half against UCF in the Big-12 conference game on Jan. 20, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Alas, there is a lot that is going to change between now and Selection Sunday, especially for the Cyclones.

After playing the TCU Horned Frogs, they play three straight games against teams currently ranked in the AP Poll Top 25: a rematch with Kansas, the Houston Cougars and the BYU Cougars.

Iowa State still has the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Arizona Wildcats on the schedule as well, before the Big 12 tournament. Challenges will persist there, with seven teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament field based on Lunardi’s predictions.