Iowa State vs. Tennessee State Bold Predictions in NCAA Tournament

The Iowa State Cyclones will get March Madness started as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

They will be playing against the No. 15 seed Tennessee State Tigers, the automatic qualifiers from the Ohio Valley Conference. Led by former Duke Blue Devils star Nolan Smith as head coach, he will have his squad prepared to handle what comes with playing during March Madness.

With heightened expectations, there will be some pressure on Iowa State to play at a high level. Will they be able to do what is needed to win?

Here are some bold predictions for the Cyclones vs. Tigers in the Round of 64.

Joshua Jefferson Continues Dominance

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson going for layup. — Mar 13, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) rebounds during the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Heading into the NCAA tournament, there may not be a player riding a bigger wave of positive momentum than All-American Joshua Jefferson. He was excellent during the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament, getting back on track after some underwhelming performances to end the regular season.

Against Tennessee State, Jefferson will keep the good times rolling. They are an undersized team; no one on the roster is 7-feet tall, and only two players are at least 6-foot-10 or taller. With no true power forwards to slow him down, the Iowa State star will get to work all game.

He is going to make at least 50% of his shot attempts for the fourth consecutive game, scoring 23 points in the process. Jefferson will add eight rebounds and six assists, to go along with two blocks and one steal, setting the tone for his team on both ends.

Interior Duo Controls Glass

Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan dunking basketball. — Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) dunks the ball around Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Luke Bamgboye (9) during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball showdown on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As mentioned previously, arguably the biggest advantage that Iowa State will have in this matchup is on the interior with their size. Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta are set up for a big game.

The big man duo is going to set the tone for their team on the interior, taking full advantage of the size differential. Buchanan has been making his presence felt more and more, especially with his offensive rebounding.

He will score 10 points with at least eight rebounds. Off the bench in relief, Pleta is going to have at least six points and six rebounds.

Tennessee State Guards Shine

Tennessee State Tigers forward Aaron Nkrumah looking to pass ball. — Nov 20, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee State Tigers forward Aaron Nkrumah (30) looks to move the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

If the Cyclones want to win this game, they need to contain the guard duo of Aaron Nkrumah and Travis Harper. They have combined for 34.9 points per game and are going to present challenges to Iowa State as oversized guards.

Both listed at 6-foot-6, it will be interesting to see how Killyan Toure and Tamin Lipsey handle defending players who have the size advantage against them. Both tenacious defenders, they will have moments where they look great, but the Tigers duo will get theirs as well.

Nkrumah and Harper will keep up their scoring attack, combining for at least 40 points and six assists in the game.

Iowa State Wins Going Away

Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger speaking to media. — Mar 19, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger talks to the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

The Cyclones have high expectations heading into the 2026 NCAA Tournament. As a No. 2 seed, they are a massive favorite in the game.

Tennessee State’s guards will do everything they can to keep them in the game, but Iowa State will ultimately prevail. They will come away with an impressive victory, winning 83-65, and advance to the Round of 32.