Iowa State Football Still Has Work To Earn Bowl Game Projection

Coming into the 2026 college football season, expectations were at rock bottom for the Iowa State Cyclones.

With a new regime in place, led by head coach Jimmy Rogers, zero returning starters from the 2025 team and virtually an entirely new roster, it was anyone’s guess what to expect from the Cyclones this season.

Two games into the Rogers era, the outlook is certainly shifting. Iowa State won in Week 1, defeating the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 38-10. They faced a massive challenge in Week 2, heading on the road to Iowa City, Iowa, to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Cy-Hawk rivalry game at Kinnick Stadium.

A nearly two-touchdown underdog, the Cyclones were in the game right to the final whistle, even holding a lead for a majority of the first half. Alas, there is only so much a morale victory will do in a 16-13 loss, as bowl game projections didn’t change for the program.

Iowa State still not projected to make a bowl game

Iowa State Cyclones Jimmy Rogers on the field during a timeout. — Sep 12, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones Jimmy Rogers on the field during a timeout of a game against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That is likely because most analysts believed Iowa State would be 1-1 heading into their Week 3 matchup with the Bowling Green Falcons. As likely favorites in their second game at Jack Trice Stadium in 2026, projections aren’t going to change much after that game either, even if they come away victorious.

What is truly going to change the team’s fortunes is if they find more success during conference play than originally expected. The Cyclones were predicted to finish in last place in the Big 12 by many outlets and analysts, unsure of what the team would bring to the table with so many new faces in place.

Rogers was confident that his squad would not be finishing last in the conference, and based on how they performed against Iowa, it would be hard to argue against that sentiment. Iowa State may not have won the game, but they proved to be a lot better than preseason projections had them pegged.

Iowa State needs to pull off a few upsets to change trajectory

Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Evan James (8) makes the catch in front of Iowa State Cyclones cornerback David Coffey. — Sep 12, 2026; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Evan James (8) makes the catch in front of Iowa State Cyclones cornerback David Coffey (18) during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cyclones will play five games at home during their Big 12 schedule. If they can go 3-2 in that stretch against the Utah Utes, West Virginia Mountaineers, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Cincinnati Bearcats and Kansas State Wildcats, they would only need to pull off one upset on the road to become bowl eligible, presuming they beat Bowling Green in Week 3.

The Baylor Bears or UCF Knights likely present the best opportunities for a victory away from Jack Trice Stadium. The BYU Cougars and Arizona Wildcats are their other two road opponents, in back-to-back games, with a bye week in between.

In a brutal scheduling quirk, half of those road games are going to come on short rest. Their trips to BYU and UCF are both Friday night games following a game on the previous Saturday, meaning one day less rest.

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