Honest Expectations for Iowa Basketball and Ben McCollum in Year 2

Ben McCollum will be the first to tell you that the magic of the magical March Madness run by the Iowa Hawkeyes has worn off. It's time to turn the page.

The next page is the 2026-27 college basketball season, which is McCollum's second season as the head coach in Iowa City.

The Elite 8 run was great last year, but that also means there are new expectations for the Hawkeyes, which include a higher floor of production and wins.

Iowa Has Raised the Bar, but Year 2 Is About Building Sustainable Success

Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tate Sage (24) shoots a free throw against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's time to be honest and take a good, hard look at what the realistic potential of this team is. To do that, we have to look at what they lost.

Bennett Stirtz, Tavion Banks, and Alvaro Folgueiras are no longer on the roster. Iowa has the depth and talent to replace the latter two, but how Iowa replaces Stirtz is this team's biggest question.

Those duties fall upon transfer addition Ty'Reek Coleman and returning guard Kael Combs. McCollum has to hope the duo can replace Stirtz in aggregate, or at least get close.

Where Iowa got better is in the paint and on the wings. Andrew McKeever, who stands 7-foot-3, came over from Saint Mary's and will be a true rim protector, something Iowa lacked last year and was hurt by at times.

On the wings, Iowa has Cooper Koch and Tate Sage, two young talents that flashed during March Madness and should be taking the next step forward.

This team has to be met with patience, though. There are going to be growing pains early on. That doesn't change the expectations, though.

With Ben McCollum's proven history, the roster improving overall despite losses, and an entire offseason to develop, the realistic expectation for this team is being competitive in the Big Ten and making the NCAA Tournament, no exceptions.

What does being competitive look like?

Iowa head coach Ben McCollum watches his team compete against the Ohio State Buckeyes Feb. 25, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The top of the Big Ten is loaded this year. Michigan will be there. Michigan State has national title hopes. Illinois is going to be loaded with so much returning talent. Purdue is always good under Matt Painter.

After that, there is a logjam of Iowa, UCLA, Ohio State, Nebraska, and USC. For Iowa, being competitive looks like taking a game or two from the top bunch and splitting among the second tier, which they are part of.

Competitive is finishing in the top half of the Big Ten standings at the end of the year. And while ESPN labeled this team's floor as missing the NCAA Tournament and the ceiling as being a trip to the round of 64, those would both feel like disappointments.

At the very worst, Iowa's floor should be making the NCAA Tournament, considering the field is expanding to 76 teams, if not winning the first-round game. Anything short is a failure, plain and simple.

The ceiling is a little harder to gauge. Iowa isn't yet at the point to claim an annual Elite 8 trip is realistic, but this team's ceiling could be a Sweet 16 run with a good draw in the bracket and a little luck, paired with Ben McCollum being a coaching mastermind.

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