Iowa's Two Keys to Victory vs. Purdue

Mackey Arena is in for a treat as the No. 13 Iowa Hawkeyes come to town to take on a sub-par Purdue squad.

The Boilermakers are one game under .500 and are just 4-10 in conference play. Currently, Iowa sits at 20-5 (11-3).

ESPN Analytics gives Iowa a 91.6% chance to win this game. Knowing this is a road game for Iowa, it's insane to think the home team was only given an 8.4% shot to pull off the upset.

On paper, seemingly every major statistic favors the Hawkeyes. Jan Jensen's squad comes into this game riding a two-game winning streak but it's worth noting Purdue just snagged their first win since January 25.

1. Turn Defense Into Offense

Iowa G Addie Dea — Feb 1, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Charlisse Leger-Walker (5) is defended by Iowa Hawkeyes guard Addie Deal (7) as she drives to the basket in the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Purdue has one of the weaker offenses in the conference which Iowa must use to their advantage. The Hawkeyes defense, up until the Taylor McCabe injury, had been one of the best in the B1G.

Allowing 91 points at home against Minnesota was the biggest wake-up call this team could've asked for. Since that horrific loss, they haven't allowed more than 67 points in a game. Keep in mind, Purdue is averaging 69.9 per game.

Iowa should have no issues scoring on a Boilermakers squad that allowed at least 67 points for every game they've played so far in 2026. During their four-game skid from January 29 to February 8 they allowed 85+ points in three of those four games. Seeing as Iowa averages 79.3 points per game, this should be a cakewalk.

2. Ball Movement/Shot Selection

Iowa G Chit-Chat Wrigh — Iowa guard Chit-Chat Wright (11) passes the basketball against the Michigan State Spartans Jan. 18, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While this could be considered two different points, it's easy to lump them together as they play off each other.

Iowa is averaging just over five more assists per game than Purdue. Not only that, but they're shooting a beautiful 49% from the field which is six full percentage points higher than the Boilermakers.

Chit-Chat Wright and Ava Heiden have been outstanding all year long. Wright currently leads the nation in three-point percentage while Heiden is shooting a brilliant 63.6% from the field which is putting her in B1G Player of the Year contention.

Both are driving factors to their success in this game, but Iowa has three players who are averaging more points per game than Purdue's leading scorer. The last thing Iowa wants to do is overlook their opponent, especially since the Boilermakers just won a game, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where they let Purdue get the best of them.

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