ESPN FPI Presents the Iowa Hawkeyes With a Chance to Boom or Bust in Week 4

ESPN FPI is waiting for the Hawkeyes to prove it. The data is ready for Iowa to show what it's made of against Michigan in Week 4.

Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Zach Lutmer (6) reacts after scoring a pick-6 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers Oct. 25, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Iowa Hawkeyes did exactly what they were supposed to do in a Week 3 55-0 romp over Northern Iowa. It's what was expected, which is why it was so refreshing to see.

Iowa has not always handled its business so cleanly in these games due to penalties, turnovers, or sloppy play, but this saw Iowa do everything correctly, down to the smallest details. It has helped Iowa's spot in the ESPN FPI ahead of a road trip to Michigan to open up Big Ten play.

Iowa is on the cusp of the ESPN FPI top 25

After sliding six spots despite beating Iowa State and falling to No. 32 in last week's ESPN FPI, the Iowa Hawkeyes gained some ground this week, climbing to No. 28.

The move rewarded Iowa for a strong performance and is now daring the Hawkeyes to prove themselves even more, as the Michigan Wolverines also saw a bump. Michigan climbed two spots to No. 20 in this week's ESPN FPI, which is allowing Iowa to launch itself into a new tier if it can find a way to win against the Wolverines.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

Despite being a win over an FCS opponent, ESPN FPI liked what it saw from the Hawkeyes and is giving some noticeable boosts across the board.

For the first time, Iowa has seen its projected win total go above the eight-win mark. The bowl game likelihood is rapidly climbing as Iowa is halfway to the six-win bowl threshold.

What really stands out is Iowa's chance to make the College Football Playoff jumping nearly six percent this week, up to almost 14%. There's a long way to go, but there is at least a path.

Projected Record: 8.1 - 3.9

Chance to Win Out: 0.3%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 94.3%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 2.0%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 13.9%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.9%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.3%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

The almost six-percent jump in the CFP odds is telling for Iowa, and I have to believe that comes largely from Iowa's offense looking like it may have some juice in the passing game.

How much juice that is remains to be seen and will be discovered in quick order with Michigan and Ohio State looming, but if there is something there, that number jumping, along with Iowa climbing over the projected eight-win mark, might just be the beginning.