ESPN FPI Punishes Iowa Football For Winning an In-State Rivalry Game

In-state rivalry games are weird. A win is a win. That should be it. The Iowa Hawkeyes shouldn't be punished, like the metrics are currently doing.

Iowa Hawkeyes offensive lineman Jack Dotzler (71), center, stands with teammates as the national anthem plays ahead of the Cy-Hawk football game Sept. 12, 2026 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The main goal is to win the game, right?

That's what the Iowa Hawkeyes did against the Iowa State Cyclones to get to 2-0 on the young season. It was a grind, and it was ugly at times. It appears that it was ugly enough for the updated ESPN FPI metrics to punish Iowa with a slide.

Iowa Hawkeyes take a big hit in ESPN FPI

After Iowa's 40-0 Week 1 win over Northern Illinois, the Hawkeyes saw a one-spot slide. Now, after a 16-13 win over Iowa State, the Hawkeyes are taking a longer and more severe tumble down the ESPN FPI rankings.

The win versus Iowa State sees the Iowa Hawkeyes dropping six spots to No. 32 in the updated ESPN FPI.

The defense was dominant. The special teams were fantastic. And the offense did just enough to pull out a victory in a matchup that is always tightly contested.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

Iowa's projected record saw no movement in the latest metrics, but the odds of making a bowl game ticked up roughly three percent, to a healthy 91.4% chance of going bowling. The Hawkeyes did see their chances at making the College Football Playoff drop from 10.4% to 8.1% this week.

Projected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Chance to Win Out: 0.1%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 91.4%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.0%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 8.1%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.4%

Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.1%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

This is a trick one with how ESPN FPI handles the data. It's rather black-and-white with using the numbers and performance to analyze things. It removes a lot of the emotional aspects of the Cy-Hawk game and the intensity that comes with it.

The drop is no cause for panic, though. Last year, Iowa fell to Iowa State in a tight game on the wrong side of a late field goal kick, but proved it was far from a sign of who this team was the rest of the year.

Iowa has the pieces to do just that again and get better as the year goes on. Sitting at 2-0, with a Power Four win under its belt and avoiding picking up an ugly loss that would create a resume blemish, everything is still in front of the Hawkeyes, with Northern Iowa looming this weekend before Big Ten play gets underway.