Odds & Trends: Iowa-Michigan Football

A Look at This Week's Game from a Gambling Angle

IOWA CITY, Iowa - FOX's game of the week is seeing plenty of action. It features a popular blue blood in Michigan and Iowa, a program known for springing upsets. 

That's intriguing. 

The fourth-ranked Wolverines enter the contest at 4-0 with wins against Maryland (No. 26 strength of schedule), Colorado State (107), UConn (121) and Hawaii (130). The Hawkeyes sit at 3-1 after victories against Rutgers (103), Nevada (123) and South Dakota State (FCS), and a loss to Iowa State (32). 

It's a prove-it game for both teams. 

Let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:

Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 4.0-point underdog in the Vegas Insider consensus. It quickly rose to the Wolverines -10.5 and remained there Friday morning. It stood there for all of the books in the VI consensus with the exception of Fubo Sportsbook, which had the Hawkeyes +11.0.

Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with Iowa at +335, and it dropped to +320 as of Friday morning. It opened with Michigan at -435, a number that fell to -417 on Friday.

Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.

The VI consensus puts it at 42.0 Friday morning, down from a 44.5 open. Fubo and Fan Duel were the consensus members holding at 42.5 Friday morning.

Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.

As of Friday morning, 53 percent of the bets placed on the contest went on Michigan, according to the Action Network.

These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.

Michigan Trends

-Michigan is 5-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in its last 6 conference games.

-Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

-Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

-Wolverines are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

-Michigan is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games overall.

-Under is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 games overall.

-Over is 25-10 in Michigan's last 35 road games.

Iowa Trends

-Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games.

-Hawkeyes are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.

-Iowa is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.

-Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

-Iowa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.

-Under is 15-6-1 in Hawkeyes' last 22 home games.

-Over is 4-1 in Iowa's last 4 conference games.

Matchup Trends

-Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Iowa.

Howe's Best Bet: Iowa +10.5

I feel so strongly about the Iowa side in this one that it scares the heck out of me.