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Odds & Trends: Iowa-Wisconsin Football
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IOWA CITY, Iowa - For a second week in a row, Iowa Football will be dealing with weather being a factor in its game. The Hawkeyes are hoping for the same result.
They knocked off Purdue, 24-3, with high winds last week in West Lafayette. The forecast for Saturday's contest against Wisconsin has been calling for freezing temperatures throughout the afternoon.
While uncomfortable for fans, these programs are used to dealing with the elements in this part of the country during November. Some of these guys welcome it. We'll see if the frigid conditions affect ball security.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the matchup from a gambling perspective in our weekly Odds & Trends piece:
Point Spreads: Iowa opened up as a 1.5-point favorite in the Vegas Insider consensus on Sunday. The Badgers moved to a 1.5-point favorite during the middle of the week before the Hawkeyes showed up as a 1.5-point pick Friday afternoon.
Half of the eight books in the consensus didn't have a line available as of Friday afternoon. Fan Duel had Iowa -1.5, Bet MGM and Sports Illustrated offered Wisconsin -1.5, and Points Bet had the Badgers -1.0.
Money Lines: The VI consensus opened with the Hawkeyes at -125, and it dropped to -115 as of Friday afternoon. Wisconsin opened at +104, a number that fell to -104 on Friday.
Over/Under: Also referred to as "the total", this number represents the amount of combined points scored by the two teams.
The VI consensus puts it at 35.5 Friday morning, right where it opened on Sunday. Every book in the consensus put it at 35.0 on Friday afternoon.
Public Percentages Wagered: Books track the percentages of bets placed on each team in a given game.
As of Friday afternoon, 63 percent of the bets placed on the contest went with Iowa according to the Action Network.
These percentages can, and often do shift as the game draws closer. The "sharps" (professional gamblers) frequently come in late with their bets.
Wisconsin Trends
-Wisconsin is 2-5 Against The Spread (ATS) vs. a team with a winning record.
-Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
-Wisconsin 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games.
-Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
-Over is 6-1 in Wisconsin's last 7 games overall.
-Over is 5-1 in Badgers' last 6 conference games.
-Over is 5-2 in Wisconsin's last 7 road games.
Iowa Trends
-Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
-Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
-Iowa is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games following a ATS win.
-Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
-Iowa is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
-Under is 4-1 in Hawkeyes' last 5 home games.
-Over is 7-3 in Iowa's last 10 conference games.
Matchup Trends
-Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Iowa.
Howe's Best Bet: Iowa -1.5
This line is all over the place as of Friday afternoon, from each team favored to a pick'em to off the board. Shop around and you might find an advantage depending on what you like. I think this is going to be a rock fight. I'll take the team playing at home.
