Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears: Preview & Players to Watch
Overview
We most likely all remember when Baylor played Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse in January. What was supposed to be about as compelling as a January college basketball game can be turned out to be a demolition of the Bears. The Jayhawks cruised to an 83-59 win that was never even close.
As fun as that game was, it's probably wrong to expect anything similar this time around. Sometimes in a single game, things just go wrong for a team. Sometimes things just go right for a team. Sometimes those things coincide and you get an unusually lopsided result. Baylor got 32% of their *twos* in that game while Kansas made 64% of theirs. Neither team had the benefit of great 3 point shooting, but given how good Baylor is on both ends of the court, a second shellacking, this one in Waco, just isn't very likely.
Baylor is one spot higher in KenPom's ratings than Kansas (4th), and rates 9th offensively and 15th defensively. There's the old rule of thumb that the vast majority of national champions rank in the top 20 on each side of the court, and that suggests that Baylor is very much a title contender. They shoot well from two and three, are dominant on the offensive glass, and force a lot of turnovers without fouling much.
If you're looking for weaknesses, there are some things to point to there as well. Their two point offense and defense haven't been quite as good since conference play started. Their "three point defense" is also partially responsible for their great overall defensive numbers, and that can come crashing down at any time. They also don't generate many free throw opportunities offensively, and lack room protection defensively.
Players to Watch
Adam Flagler, 6'3 junior guard
In the first game, Flager's playing status was up in the air going in, as he was coming off a missed game due to injury. He missed another game last Saturday, but returned in their win over West Virginia this week. Flagler is hitting 43% from deep in Big 12 play on 88 attempts, while also making over half his twos. He's an offensive force who also generates a fair amount of assists.
James Akinjo, 6'1 senior guard
The Arizona transfer (by way of Georgetown) came into the season with a lot of fanfare based on last year's performance in Tucson, but has struggled a bit in Waco. A 41% 3 point shooter last year, Akinjo is just 28% in league play and 31% for this season. Still, he's capable of scoring in bunches (despite his 0-11 goose egg in Lawrence) and generating artists, and is a great perimeter defender who will force some turnovers.
Flo Thamba, 6'10 senior center
Thamba is an interesting player. At 6'10 and 245 points, he looks like a great player getting off the bus. But offensive limitations and a tendency to get into foul trouble have kept his minutes down at times. Lately, however, Thamba has averaged 30 minutes a game across the last four. He still isn't scoring much and is a liability at the free throw line (58%), but his physical attributes make him a big threat on the offensive boards, and by far the team's top shot blocker. If the recent uptick in minutes suggests things are coming together for him a bit more, he could be a factor in this one.
Prediction
The line is currently Baylor -3, which feels about right. Baylor is going to remember what happened in Lawrence, and with a 7:00 tipoff on a Saturday night, the crowd will likely be extra amped. That could mean a tough environment for Kansas, who is just ok on the defensive boards and turns it over a bit too much. I feel like after this one, Jayhawk fans will be regretting a few possessions where we either gave Baylor extra offensive opportunities, or gave it away on a critical possession or two, leaving a feeling of an opportunity missed.
Baylor 80, Kansas 74
