Miami vs Kansas: NCAA Tournament Preview & Players to Watch

A quick preview of today's game between the Kansas Jayhawks and Miami Hurricanes with a Final Four berth on the line.

Contents

1. Overview
2. Players to Watch
3. Prediction

After a tough, and at times (very) ugly victory over the Providence Friars, the Kansas Jayhawks will take on the Miami Hurricanes at the United Center in Chicago Sunday with a chance to make their fourth Final Four under Bill Self. The number 10 seeded Miami Hurricanes got here after pulling away from the 11 seeded Iowa State Cyclones, 70-56 on Friday night.

Overview

What should we expect from this Miami team? Coming into the tournament, they were a fairly typically 10 seed. At the time they had just finished 4th in the ACC with a 14-6 record, sitting at 23-10 overall. They were down at 57th in KenPom, though they had worked their way up quite a bit from a low point of 102nd early in the season. Now, after consecutive tournament wins over USC, Auburn, and ISU (the latter two by a total of 32 points), they sit at 35th in KenPom's ratings, with the 18th ranked offense and 114th ranked defense. 

Starting with that highly rated offense, Miami does a lot of things well. They very rarely turn it over (6th lowest rate in the country), though that's not something KU's defense typically relies on anyway. They also shoot the ball exceptionally well, especially from inside the arc, where they rank 22nd at an impressive 55%. They do this by in part by getting 38% of their shots at the rim and converting 65% there. For comparison, Kansas gets 39% of their shots at the rim and converts 65% there (insert Spider-man pointing meme here). They shoot a respectable 34.1% from deep, but haven't typically been deadly from outside, and they don't tend to take a lot of shots from outside. You don't want to put them on the free throw line too much, as they hit over 74% from there. One important note is that they do not crash the offensive boards (319th nationally), something that has given Kansas trouble at times this year. 

Defensively, though ranked just 114th by KenPom, they still can be scary. The main concern is that they focus on turning teams over, and do it very well. They've forced turnovers on 20.6% of defensive possessions this year, but it's notable that they actually got better at it in ACC play, ranking 1st in the conference by ticking up to a 21.2% rate against improved competition. They manage to play a high pressure defense without fouling a lot, and the result has been pushing teams out to the three point line, where opponents have taken over 39% of their shots. However, that high pressure defense focuses on generating steals (9th in the country) and not affecting shots (283rd ranked defensive eFG%). Opponents shoot 53% from two and 34.5% from three against them. 

Players to Watch

Charlie Moore, 5'11 senior point guard

© Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

How could I not mention the former Jayhawk first? Moore spent a shaky sophomore season at KU after transferring from Cal. He transferred again to DePaul, where turnovers and poor shooting kept him from being especially effective. His fifth season, now in South Florida, has been where it's clicked for Moore. He learned how to pick pockets, leading the ACC with a fantastic steal rate of 4%, something he'd only previously shown glimpses of. He also steadied his 3 point shooting, which had been all over the place, and hit 37.1% from deep. He's always generated assists and has continued to do so, this year without all the turnover issues. He could very well scorch his former team today. 

Kameron McGusty, 6'5 senior wing

© Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

If this name sounds familiar, it's because it's another throwback to the Big 12 from years ago. McGusty spent his first two years at Oklahoma before transferring to Miami. As a super senior, McGusty is having his best year, hitting 54% of his 309 two point attempts, and 36% on 168 tries from deep, on his way to a team high 17.8 points per game. He gets to the line often and does damage there by hitting 81%. He also generates steals without turning it over himself. McGusty has turned himself into a legitimate high level college basketball player. 

Sam Waardenburg, 6'10 senior center

Waardenburg may make it difficult for McCormack and Lightfoot to get all the minutes at the 5 today (which, at this point, may or may not be a good thing). At 6'10 he's got legitimate big man height, but a perimeter oriented game. As a center, only 40% of his shots came at the rim this year, while he shot a dangerous 42% on 95 three point attempts. While, like the rest of the team, he doesn't rebound well, he is a decent rim protector with a 5% block rate, averaging 1.3 per game. 

If he forces McCormack to defend at the perimeter, and prevents him from scoring easy baskets in the paint, it's hard to see how Mac gets going in this one, which could force Self into using a small lineup with Jalen Wilson at the 5. We haven't seen that lineup much down the stretch, but earlier in the season, it struggled. 

Prediction

It's tempting to see that mediocre defense and think Kansas has a shot at running away with this one. And to be fair, that's a possibility. But dissecting how they defend, it's not a great matchup for Kansas, who may be pressured into taking a lot of threes. Overall, they've shot well there this year, but as we saw Friday, it's hardly a given and not something we really want to rely heavily on. 

Self's offense is built on getting good shots at the rim and the Jayhawks may have a hard time generating them. Meanwhile, Miami has the offensive weapons to test KU's improved defense. I think this is is the end of line, and once again Kansas will end its season in the Elite 8.

Miami 78, Kansas 73