NCAA Tournament 2024 – West Regional Preview
At the risk of sounding cliche and corny, the West regional has the potential to get wild, and that’s because there is a ton of offensive firepower and potential fantastic matchups.
Let’s dive in…
Biggest Storylines
If you like scoring and fast-pace play, you should be locked into the west region. Here’s how the top four teams rank in terms of offensive efficiency and tempo at KenPom:
North Carolina: 24th in efficiency | 41st in tempo
Arizona: 8th in efficiency | 16th in tempo
Baylor: 6th in efficiency | 281st in tempo
Alabama: 2nd in efficiency | 9th in tempo
North Carolina and Arizona were competing for a one seed for most of February and March and there are several other hot teams heading into the tournament. Saint Mary’s has only lost once since December 23, Charleston hasn’t lost since February 1, Colgate has one loss since January 10, and Nevada won its last seven games of the regular season before losing the first round in the Mountain West Tournament.
Best First-Round Matchup
Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon
This has the potential to be a great 5-12 matchup. I already mentioned the Gaels’ hot streak and the GCU Antelopes have only lost four times all year and are efficient both offensively and defensively. These are two teams who grab offensive rebounds, score well in the paint, are in the top 10 defensively in effective field goal percentage, and are among the tallest in the country.
KenPom has this as a four-point game with Saint Mary’s winning.
Upset/Cinderella Pick
I’m not going to pick New Mexico over Clemson because Vegas actually has UNM favored in this game. Same for Michigan State over Mississippi State and Nevada over Dayton.
So I’m going back to the best first-round game and picking Grand Canyon. GCU has an incredible scorer in former Kansas Jayhawk Tyon Grant-Foster, the Antelopes get to the line a ton, and they already have two top-70 KenPom wins and a seven-point loss to South Carolina on the resume. Also, don’t forget that Grand Canyon’s head coach is Bryce Drew, who in 1998 hit one of the most iconic buzzer-beaters in history.
Dark Horse Pick (5 Seed Or Higher That Could Win Region)
I’m going pretty deep into Cinderella territory with a 10 seed, but I’ll take Nevada. The Wolf Pack are in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, are elite at getting to the free-throw line, pass the ball well (37th in assist rate), and are experienced with a ton of upperclassmen. There’s not a ton that Nevada doesn’t do well, but it does have a tendency to get cold from the field. Nevada also has wins this year over TCU and Washington in the non-conference and has seven top-100 wins in Mountain West play.
This pick would require a great showing in an upset over Arizona and then likely some madness taking place above in the bracket, with Bama, Baylor, or UNC falling earlier than expected.
Regional Final Prediction
North Carolina vs Baylor
Sure, let’s get weird. I don’t trust Alabama's defense enough to win four games. Meanwhile, Arizona has lost four times to teams outside of the top 50 in KenPom. Unless someone like Saint Mary’s or Grand Canyon pull off a couple of major upsets, I think North Carolina gets to the Elite Eight fairly easily. Then it comes down to the bottom half, where I absolutely think some weird stuff could happen and I could see Dayton, Nevada, or New Mexico making a run. But Baylor is playing well right now and I think its offense does enough to make a run in the second weekend.
