Samford vs Kansas NCAA Tournament Preview
We’ve reached the point of the year that everyone works toward all season. It’s NCAA Tournament time. The Kansas Jayhawks are in Salt Lake City as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest region looking to right the ship at the right time. But while Hunter Dickinson is on track to play, Bill Self ruled out Kevin McCullar for the tournament on Tuesday.
Waiting for Kansas in the first round is a Samford Bulldogs team that is high on many’s upset pick list.
Opponent Overview
Team: Samford
Record: 29-5
KenPom: 81
Line: Kansas -7.5
Team Form
Samford kicked off the year with a tough two-game stretch, but hasn’t played anyone too challenging since. The season began with a 98-45 loss to Purdue and then a 75-65 defeat to VCU. Those are the only two top-100 KenPom teams the Bulldogs have faced this year. Though it has won 29 of its last 32 games. The three losses were all on the road to No. 141 Furman by 10, No. 217 Mercer by four, and No. 193 Wofford by 22. Samford won the Southern Conference by three games.
Players to Watch
Samford is led by 6-9 forward Achor Achor out of Australia. Achor is averaging a team-high 15.8 points and 6.1 rebounds, and he doesn’t take a ton of threes, but he has made 45% on 56 taken this year. Achor was great in the final two games of the Southern conference tournament, scoring 28 and grabbing 14 rebounds against Furman and dropping 25 points and nine rebounds in the title game against East Tennessee State.
Four other Bulldogs average between nine and 11 points per game, and they’re all great shooters. Jaden Campbell scores 11.1 points while shooting 48% from deep on 102 attempts, which is seventh best in D-I. A.J. Staton-McCray is second on the team at 11.6 points while coming off the bench and shoots 42% from three.
Matchups to Watch
Samford is the anti-Virginia. The Bulldogs have the sixth shortest average possession length on offense of anyone in the country. TCU is the fastest Big 12 team at 31st and a second longer per possession. But KU has played and beat Kentucky and Tennessee who are faster than TCU. Samford gets shots off fast and 41% of them are threes, while shooting 39.3% on those shots. Samford also operates a full-court press on defense, forcing turnovers on nearly 22% of its opponents possessions. But the defense hasn’t been overly successful if not causing turnovers on the press. The Bulldogs are 116th in defensive efficiency, send teams to the line a ton, and have given up 80 or more points in 10 games. That also has to do with the style and pace of place.
With all of that movement, Samford uses its bench as much as anyone nationally. The issue is that Samford turns it over 18% of the time on offense and are 349th nationally in average height. Its starting point guard is 5-8 and only two players are taller than 6-8. Because of this, the Bulldogs give up a ton of offensive rebounds, to the tune of 32% of its opponents misses.
Kansas will have opportunities for good looks from three. Because of the press nature, Samford opponents have had open looks and taken three-pointers on 40% of possessions. What has helped the Bulldogs is that teams are only shooting 34%. Some of that is skewed by three Southern conference opponents shooting less than 31% from three. KU being able to hit some open shots early will be huge.
Prediction
One of the narratives leading up to this game is that the altitude and pace of play will hurt the Jayhawks due to a lack of depth (fun fact, Lawrence has a higher elevation than Birmingham, Alabama). There's this assumption that Kansas plays at a slow, methodical pace, but that’s not true. KU is 55th nationally in average possession length on offense and plays better on the move. The most terrifying thing is when there are five seconds left on the shot clock and a Jayhawk has to make a play one-on-one.
Remember, Kansas likes to run and attack in transition — and that’s where it is best — too. Especially considering KU hasn’t played in more than a week, I don’t see legs being tired as an issue (maybe Saturday if they make it).
I’m not sure what Samford is going to do with the size and athleticism of Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams. Opponents shoot nearly 50% from inside the arc on the Bulldogs and the combo of Dickinson and Adams should feast on the boards. The biggest question is can KU’s guards either hit some open threes or be aggressive driving and get to the foul line.
The style of play (high possessions and three-point shooting) make this a high-variance game. Samford could get hot and make eight of its first 12 threes. But I think with four days to prepare, Self will have a plan for the press and getting out on shooters. I see Dickinson having a 20-10-type performance and Kansas getting the win to advance to Saturday’s round of 32.
Kansas 83, Samford 71
Record ATS: 14-17
Record Straight Up: 23-8
(Last game: Cincinnati 72, Kansas 52)
