2023 NCAA Tournament Lexington Regional Preview
LEXINGTON, Ky. — The road to Omaha includes a pitstop in Lexington for only the third time ever.
The 2023 NCAA Tournament Field of 64 was released on Monday afternoon, announcing the 16 groups of four teams that will vie for a national championship in June.
Kentucky earned the No. 12 overall seed and will play postseason baseball at Kentucky Proud Park this weekend. Joining the Wildcats are the West Virginia Mountaineers, the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ball State Cardinals. The schedule is as follows:
- Day 1: Friday, June 2
- Game 1: Kentucky vs. Ball State (Noon EST)
- Game 2: West Virginia vs. Indiana (7 p.m. EST)
- Day 2: Saturday, June 3
- Game 3: Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 (Noon EST)
- Game 4: Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2 (6 p.m. EST)
- Day 3: Sunday, June 4
- Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (Noon EST)
- Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 (6 p.m. EST)
- Day 4: Monday, June 5
- Game 7: If necessary, same teams as in Game 6 (TBD)
Here's a breakdown of the four teams that will look to punch a ticket into a Super Regional and take that next step toward the College World Series, accompanied with a handy chart from Friday Starters on Twitter that can be referred to for where the four teams stand in some statistics:
No. 1 Kentucky
The Road:
Kentucky (36-18, 16-15 SEC) knew the SEC portion of the schedule was going to be tough, but why not toss in a top-10 non-conference strength of schedule to go with it? The Cats did just that, but excelled against the competition, going 20-3 against teams not in the SEC.
UK didn't lose a series until the fourth weekend of conference play and at one point won 17 games in a row. It won road series at Elon and Southern Illinois and also won home series against Wright State (tournament team) and Indiana State (Regional host), which it swept. Amidst that was also a 12-2 run-rule midweek win over Indiana on March 14. The Cats have a 16-14 record against teams also in the tournament.
The going has gotten tough down the stretch, however. Kentucky was lost six of its last seven series, with the only win being a sweep over Regional host South Carolina. It was only swept once during that stretch, but consistently lost two of three games a weekend, bringing it to a 16-15 record in-conference. Alabama bounced it in the first round of the SEC Tournament last week.
The Wildcats have clearly been overmatched at times, but their small-ball identity and underrated pitching has carried them further than many thought they would go this season, making for a worthy host.
Three Stats:
- 53 Sacrifice Bunts (6th in Division I)
- .420 On-Base Percentage (12th)
- 4.24 ERA (18th)
Three Position Players:
- CF Jackson Gray (.363/.514/.580) has become an on-base machine in the leadoff spot for UK. His 26 extra-base hits are the most on the team. He's also drawn 39 walks and stolen 19 bases. Good things happen when he reaches base, not to mention his electric glove that has saved a plethora of runs for UK pitching.
- 2B Émilien Pitre (.337/.469/.440) was named Second Team All-SEC and made the All-Defensive Team, acknowledging the Canadian's breakout season. He's drawn 41 walks and struck out just 29 times while swiping 18 bags. The polar opposite of a prototypical cleanup hitter, but a crucial fixture in the UK lineup.
- SS Grant Smith (.283/.369/.462) is all of a sudden second on the team in home runs after hitting one five games in a row to close out the regular season. The Incarnate Word transfer was snubbed from All-Defensive honors despite his .986 fielding percentage. Smith will be the best defensive player in Lexington this weekend.
Three Pitchers:
- RHP Darren Williams (4-2, 4.08) is closing out a seven-year college career. His usage in the postseason will be interesting to see, as he could be a starter, long-relief option or a closer for the Cats. He closed in UK's final regular season win, then started in its SEC Tournament loss. He can throw five pitches for a strike and is the lynchpin of the staff.
- RHP Zack Lee (4-2, 3.73) has been Kentucky's best starter down the stretch, throwing five innings or more in each of his last three non-weather delayed outings. Lee should be considered the "ace" at this point and should be used in the Wildcats' biggest game this weekend.
- RHP Austin Strickland (3-1, 5.01) has been stretched out from a reliever to the point where he even made a start in the Cats' final game of the regular season, where he threw 6.2 innings and allowed only three runs. His development is much-needed for a staff that contains little certainty when it comes to getting length from starters on an outing-to-outing basis.
No. 2 West Virginia
The Road:
The Mountaineers (39-18, 15-11 B12) carry plenty of experience on the road, considering it has played at Georgia Southern, Maryland, Arizona, Appalachian State and UNC Greensboro all before Big 12 play ramped up.
WVU is a ballclub that has more victories on the road (19) than it does in its home ballpark (18). The only one of those road series' it lost was the season-opener at GA Southern, dropping two of three. It also swept Minnesota at home.
The Big 12 champions went 15-9 in-conference, winning 14 of 16 games at one point in the middle of the slate. That sets up a bland end to the regular season, however. The Mountaineers lost four of their last six regular season games, capped off by getting swept at Texas. They then went 0-2 in the Big 12 Tournament, firmly ending their hopes of hosting a Regional, which wasn't out of the cards a couple of weeks ago.
Some of the names on the schedule don't carry the punch that their names would suggest, leading to a No. 66 SOS and a still respectable No. 24 RPI. WVU is a similar baseball team to Kentucky in a few ways, primarily the way it manufactures runs.
Head coach Randy Mazey was named the Big 12 Coach of the Year, leading WVU to its third postseason birth during his tenure.
Three Stats:
- 121 stolen bases (12th in Division I)
- .415 On-Base Percentage (15th)
- 5.0 Runs Allowed per Nine Innings (22nd)
Three Position Players:
- 2B JJ Wetherholt (.443/.512/.774) was named the Big 12 Player of the Year and will be the best all-around player in Lexington. He's acquired 94 hits (21 doubles, 15 home runs), has 56 RBIs, 34 stolen bases, 25 walks and only 21 Ks. The stats speak loudly.
- SS Tevin Tucker (.319/.467/.411) is another on-base machine that has 19 swiped bags and has drawn 38 free passes. He's scored 55 runs, and while he isn't going to do as much damage at the plate with only 12 extra-base hits on the season, he's one of three Mountaineers that has played 57 games.
- OF's Landon Wallace (.323/.462/.575) and Caleb McNeely (.301/.417/.583) combine for 24 doubles, 23 homers, 31 stolen bases and 95 RBIs. Both are capable of bopping WVU to victory while playing sure-fire outfield.
Three Pitchers:
- LHP Ben Hampton (5-3, 4.17) earned First Team All-Big 12 honors this season, making 15 starts, 10 of which saw him throw 6.0 innings or more. He's not un-hittable, as opponents own a .272 batting average against the junior, but he's accumulated 64 strikeouts while walking just 29. He may give up a few runs, but he's going deep into games.
- RHP Blaine Traxel (7-5, 3.79) was tabbed to the Second Team All-Big 12 team, carrying a similar role to Hampton. The CS Northridge transfer has thrown a whopping five complete games and has amassed 99.2 innings this season. Striking out 71 while walking only 20, Traxel will also give up his fair share of hits, but the Mountaineer bullpen has it easy when he takes the mound.
- RHP Carlson Reed (2-1, 1.50) is WVU's lockdown reliever. He's got seven saves, usually hurling a pair of innings when he toes the slab. In 36 innings, he's allowed only six earned, striking out 57 batters. He's yet to allow more than one earned run in an outing this season.
No. 3 Indiana
The Road:
There's not much to speak about when it comes to Big Ten baseball. Early in projections season, a Regional coming to Bloomington wasn't out of the question. Toward the back half of the year, Indiana (41-18, 17-9 B10) being a No. 2 seemed likely. Now, the Hoosiers find themselves headed to Lexington as a No. 3.
Head coach Jeff Mercer has IU back in the tournament for the first time since 2019, when the Hoosiers won the Big Ten in his first season as skipper. Indiana opened the season losing two of three at Auburn, then two of three at Texas. Kentucky was then the only team to beat IU amidst a 14-game stretch that bled into the beginning of conference play.
The Hoosiers won six Big Ten series, but boast only eight wins over teams with a top-50 RPI. They beat up on the teams they should've beat up on, leading them to a 41-win campaign, 13 of which came on the road, leading to the No. 30 RPI. They went 1-2 in the Big Ten Tournament and have won 10 of their last 14.
Indiana made its first and only College World Series appearance back in 2013. It'll likely have to avenge its 12-2 loss to UK if it wants to make another run to Omaha.
Three Stats:
- .298 Batting Average (49th in Division I)
- 12.8 K-BB Percentage (47th)
- 7.78 Runs Scored per Game (44th)
Three Position Players:
- OF Devin Taylor (.317/.439/.661) is a First Team All-Big 10 selection and the Big 10 Freshman of the Year. His 16 homers lead the Hoosiers, while his 57 RBIs are second. The Cincinnati native will be playing close to home, looking to build on his stellar first season of college baseball.
- 1B Brock Tibbitts (.372/.465/.605) is a Second Team All-Big 10 member after driving in 66 runs while scoring 61 himself. He has just two hits in his last five games, but also recently had a streak where he had eight multi-hit outings in a nine-game stretch. His 83 hits are second most on the team.
- SS Phillip Glasser (.351/.443/.508) joined Tibbitts on the Second Team after collecting 26 extra-base hits, 19 of which were doubles. He has seven more walks (35) than Ks (28) and can play a slick shortstop. He also has a team-high 14 stolen bases.
Three Pitchers:
- RHP Luke Sinnard (6-3, 4.16) is far and away the lead arm for the Hoosiers, with 84.1 innings under his belt. In 15 starts, he's struck out 109 while walking only 25. He has just one start where he hasn't thrown at least 5.0 innings. He's given up five or more hits in 11 of those starts, but also has nine outings with seven or more Ks.
- LHP Ryan Kraft (6-1, 2.83) is an All-Big Ten First Team selection as a reliever with five saves, but has been stretched out to make a start if need be for the Hoosiers, lately even throwing 7.1 innings in an appearance. He's got 49 strikeouts in 57.1 innings and will be a go-too option this weekend.
- RHP Brayden Risedorph (2-1, 4.47) has thrown the third most innings (46.1) in 22 appearances, the most on the team. He's got six saves, but also has a few outings with 3.0-plus innings. He's struck out 53 and walked only 14.
No. 4 Ball State
The Road:
Ball State (36-21, 20-11) put all of its NCAA Tournament chips into winning the MAC Championship, playing a weak non-conference schedule, which featured a series loss to Charlotte, then a smorgasbord of middling opponents, resulting in a 17-10 non-conference record.
The Cardinals then went 19-11 in MAC play, ending the regular season being swept by Kent State. They were one of the four teams that made the MAC Championship, making the title game by winning their first two games, including a win over Kent State. The Golden Flashes made the title game, leading to an intense finish.
It was a two-out ninth-inning grand slam to help Ball State win 12-9, winning the title while punching the Cardinals' ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006. Ball State led 8-2 before Kent mounted seven unanswered runs, taking a 9-8 lead into the ninth. The Cardinals had no runners on with two outs before a double and two walks, leading to Adam Tellier unloaded on a hanging breaking ball for the grand slam.
The location of that 2006 Regional appearance? Lexington. Ball State beat UK 3-1, though the Cats avenged that loss later in the weekend with a 12-9 victory.
Three Stats:
- 88 home runs (42nd in Division I)
- 23.9 strikeout percentage (pitching) (38th)
- 14.4 walk percentage (pitching) (293rd)
Three Position Players:
- OF Decker Scheffler (.386/.462/.614) is a First Team All-MAC selection. He's compiled more extra-base hits (24) than strikeouts (22) and will be a tough out all weekend, no matter who's on the mound. He's riding a 10-game hitting streak into Lexington.
- 3B Ryan Peltier (.351/.432/.658) was also tabbed to that First Team thanks to 80 hits, 19 of which were doubles, 10 of which were home runs. He drove in a team-high 56 runs and stolen 12 bases. He's also scored a team-high 68 runs.
- SS Adam Tellier (.319/.398/.515) is riding on the highest of highs following the grand slam to win the auto-bid and earn MAC Tournament MVP honors. He's driven in 46 runs and rounds out a stellar quartet of shortstops that will be playing at Kentucky Proud Park this weekend.
Three Pitchers:
- RHP Trennor O'Donnell (5-3, 2.98) is the workhorse of the staff. Hurling 84.2 innings, he's allowed only 28 earned runs, striking out 92 while walking 31. Opponents are hitting only .219. His last outing was a five-hit, one-run complete game win with eight Ks over Kent State.
- RHP Ty Weatherly (2-4, 6.68) has amassed 63.1 innings, yielding some mixed results. He threw 7.0 scoreless three starts ago, then two starts ago gave up six earned. The Cardinals will send him to the mound, though it could be a crapshoot.
- RHP Ty Johnson (4-2, 3.81) has racked up 63 strikeouts and a measly .192 opposing batting average, making nine starts in 15 outings. He's thrown more than 5.0 innings just once and is among four pitchers that are hovering around 40-50 total innings this season.
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