How Kentucky Needs to Finish to Make NCAA Tournament, Host Regional
It's always a rollercoaster ride in the SEC. When things are going good, you're flying high with dreams of Omaha on the mind. When things are going bad, you're simply trying to claw your way to Hoover.
Things aren't going great for Kentucky baseball. The Wildcats have lost four consecutive SEC series and just got swept for the first time this season, dropping three games at No. 5 Vanderbilt, the last of which was truly heartbreaking.
After opening conference play 8-1, UK is now 11-10 and 30-13 overall. It has lost 10 of its last 13 games and has gone from a near lock to hosting a Regional to still having plenty of work to do to ensure it'll hear its name called when the NCAA Tournament bracket is released.
"You have 30 SEC games and they're all worth the same. We told our team that at the very beginning ... so thankful we got off to a great start," head coach Nick Mingione said. "There's no question that we got some work to do. But everything we want, all of our goals are still right in front of us."
So, what exactly is it that Kentucky needs to do to earn a spot in the tourney? Can the Cats still earn one of the top 16 seeds and host a Regional at Kentucky Proud Park?
The answer for the latter question obviously hinges on the results of other teams vying for those same spots, but we can piece together a roadmap for UK to feel comfy when the bracket is revealed on May 29.
First things first, Kentucky's RPI puts it in a great spot when comparing it to other teams that have a similar résumé. It's currently No. 4 and has previously been No. 1 for a good chunk of the season. The college baseball setup is a bit behind that of a college basketball Selection Committee, in that RPI still really, really matters. It's arguably the only thing that matters, depending on who you ask. There are no quadrants, but you can still get a glimpse:
UK has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation. Against teams with an RPI in the top 25, it is 7-8. Think of that as your Q1 section. Against teams with an RPI between 26-50, it's 8-3. The rest:
- vs. RP1 51-100 — 6-2
- vs. RPI 101-200 — 7-0
- vs. RPI 200+ — 2-0
Mingione told reporters before the season that he met with RPI "gurus" in order to ensure that that wouldn't be a knock against the Cats down the road. Road series' at Elon (RPI 51) and Southern Illinois (116), as well as home series' against Wright State (93) and — the big one — Indiana State (10) did the trick in non-conference, while the SEC slate obviously takes care of the rest.
Essentially, it's fair to assume that if Kentucky winds up on the bubble, it should have an edge on whoever it is up against from a metric standpoint. But why should UK worry about potentially being on the bubble?
Well, let's take a look at the remaining SEC schedule, shall we?
- May 5-7: vs. No. 3 South Carolina
- May 12-14: @ No. 18 Tennessee
- May 18-20: vs. No. 4 Florida
Anymore questions?
This is a truly brutal stretch for the Cats, especially when you think about the fact that they just played No. 5 Vanderbilt on the road, and a couple weeks before that played No. 1 LSU in Baton Rouge. It's hard to expect amazing results, but what do the Cats need to do over these next three weeks?
You can find more in-depth numbers about it HERE, but Kentucky should feel locked in to making the NCAA Tournament if it can reach 14 SEC wins. Going back to the last four completed seasons — 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022 — SEC teams who have won 14 or more games have made the NCAA Tournament 100 percent of the time, going 34-for-34.
Currently sitting at 11 wins with nine games to go, that means a 3-6 stretch against ranked opponents, two of which are currently in the top five. Before it was swept by Vandy, it needed to just go 3-9. That record looks much more manageable than what it is entering this weekend against South Carolina.
Going back to RPI, say UK were to only manage 13 wins in-conference and not make a run at the SEC Tournament in Hoover, things would get a little more dicey, but its chances would be better than in years past — notably 2018 and 2022, two times where it was on the bubble but just didn't have a good enough résumé in the Selection Committee's eyes.
But what about earning a top-16 seed and hosting? Is that still in the cards?
Yes, but it won't be easy. Entering Week 11, D1Baseball had UK as a No. 2 seed in West Virginia's Regional. BaseballAmerica's latest projections say the Cats are "just off the hosting bubble," but "could host with a strong finish in conference play."
For this current Kentucky team, a strong finish could be considered anything from 9-0 to 5-4. If a 5-4 stretch means winning both of the remaining home series against SC and Florida while dropping two of three at Tennessee, one would have to guess that Mingione would be just fine with that.
A 5-4 finish would mean a 16-14 SEC record. That's been good enough to host in the past — Auburn was the No. 14 overall seed with a 16-13 conference record a season ago. South Carolina did it in 2021, Ole Miss did it in 2019. Texas A&M also won 16 games that season, but didn't host.
Winning six games feels like the mark that would almost surely equal a rowdy KPP in the first week of June. Can Kentucky go 6-3 against that trio of teams? Absolutely.
Will it? We'll find out in due time...
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