Why Vanderbilt is Kentucky's Toughest Matchup of the Season

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — It's gut-check time for Kentucky baseball. After hurling uppercuts at every team standing in its way for the first month and a half, the wall has arrived.

The Bat Cats have lost three SEC series in a row, dropping a pair of games on the road against Georgia, at No. 1 LSU and at home versus Texas A&M. In a flash, No. 15 UK has gone from 8-1 in conference play to 11-7. With four SEC series left in the regular season, head coach Nick Mingione's team needs to find a new gear as it tries to break its five-year NCAA Tournament drought.

It just isn't that easy, however. All 12 of the in-conference games left on the docket are currently slated to come against teams ranked in the top 25. Nine of those feature opponents currently ranked in the top five:

April 28-30: @ No. 5 Vanderbilt
May 5-7: vs. No. 3 South Carolina
May 12-14: @ No. 24 Tennessee
May 18-20: vs. No. 4 Florida

The gauntlet begins with three games against the fifth-ranked Commodores at Charles Hawkins Field in Nashville. Currently 29-11 (13-5 SEC), Vandy just suffered a sweep at the hands of Tennessee, with the final two games each being uncompetitive. It was its first series loss of the year and was the first true sign of a setback for coach Tim Corbin's group — which has been on the fast track to Omaha since February.

Kentucky is desperate to follow Tennessee's lead, but unfortunately for the Cats, Vandy is — on paper — its toughest matchup of the season. Here's why:

Left-Handed Pitching

Kentucky hasn't been able to hit left-handed pitchers worth a lick this season. Seven of its 10 losses have seen a lefty dealing on the mound, throwing a majority of the opponent's innings:

(Elon) Shea Sprague — 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
(Wright State) Sebastian Gongora — 5 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
(Alabama) Grayson Hitt — 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 5 K
(Georgia) Liam Sullivan — 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
(Georgia) Charlie Goldstein — 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 7 K
(Texas A&M) Evan Aschenbeck — 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
(Texas A&M) Troy Wansing — 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

It's something that has been exposed more as of late in SEC play. First baseman Hunter Gilliam has talked about the team putting in extra work on the lefty pitching machine, trying to deduce the movements of those snappy breaking balls. Left-handed center fielder Jackson Gray — who had a big finish in UK's lone win over A&M on Sunday — knows that the performance against his same side hasn't been up to snuff.

Kentucky will have more cracks to get right against lefties this weekend versus Vandy, but that's not exactly a great thing for the Wildcats.

Probable Starters

FRIDAY: UK – TBA; VU – LHP Carter Holton (4-0, 3.20)
SATURDAY: UK – LHP Tyler Bosma (4-2, 4.33); VU – LHP Hunter Owen (3-0, 3.33)
SUNDAY: UK – RHP Zack Lee (3-2, 3.89); VU – LHP Devin Futrell (6-2, 2.50)

The Dores are set to send a trio of left-handers out to the mound, all of whom are likely the best pitchers Kentucky will face all season from that side. Just by glancing at the win-loss record and ERA of Holton, Owen and Futrell, it doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

All three have thrown 45 or more innings and have allowed 17 or less earned runs. Holton and Owen each have 52 strikeouts, while all three have less than 20 walks. Owen has the highest opponent batting average, sitting at a whopping .219.

But at least Kentucky has the small ball advantage, right?

Well...

Small Ball Relatability

Vanderbilt is the team in the SEC that is the best suited to deal with Kentucky's chaotic offensive style, with one of the main reasons being the Commodores can also play a little small ball.

Nobody will be catching Kentucky in the sacrifice bunt category, as the Cats have laid down 41, 30 more than Vanderbilt and 25 more than the next team in the SEC, Alabama. Vandy has 11 on the year, though. It's the stolen base numbers that draw a closer comparison.

The Cats have swiped 68 bags, the best in the SEC, while Vandy is tied for third with 60. The Dores are second behind UK in steal attempts, however. Look no further than VU outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr, who leads the conference in steals with 26. he's bene caught just four times this season.

Nothing Kentucky will try to do this weekend will be a surprise to Corbin and his team. Sure, UK is an amplified version of anything they've seen this year, but the relatability the Commodores have will nullify that surprise factor that the Wildcats have held on almost every other team they've played this year.

Throw in Vanderbilt's .209 opposing batting average on the mound and the heap of lefties, and it'll be on Kentucky to consistently get runners on base and capitalize on every opportunity, because they'll likely be few and far between. VU pitchers and catchers have allowed just 21 steals this season.

Kentucky is hitting .296 as a team, compared to Vandy's .280. The Cats have a .426 on-base percentage compared to Vandy's .390. The Commodores haven't looked invincible this season, but the Wildcats will need its pitching staff to shove, because the matchup doesn't look amazing on paper for the Cats' bats.

First pitch for game one on Friday night in Nashville is set for 7 p.m. EST. The series will air on SEC Network+.

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