ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and Mississippi State

ESPN projects who will win between the Kentucky Wildcats and Mississippi State Bulldogs men's basketball.

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope yells during game against the Missouri Tigers | Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Kentucky basketball is in deep water after their historic 0-2 start in SEC play on Wednesday, a stunning late-game collapse that is the perfect representation of their season, all wrapped up in the last five minutes of the home loss. Now, the Wildcats will return to Rupp Arena on Saturday to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and they're very desperate to leave with the win.

Every Kentucky fan knows that losing in Rupp Arena is rare, as great teams never do, and good teams drop one here and there. Well, this Kentucky team now has two home losses on the season, both featuring a terrible product of basketball being played, with late-game collapses to cap it all off. That's exactly what happened on Wednesday, as Kentucky blew an eight point lead with 4:37 left before Missouri went on a 15-2 run to leave with a win. That's why Kentucky absolutely cannot lose a second-straight game on their home floor, let alone against quad 2 and 3 opponents.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are classified as a quad 3 opponent, as they are ranked #83 in the NET, but don't let that fool you. Head coach Chris Jans (aka The Dentist) has them rolling after starting SEC play 2-0, coming off a big 72-53 win over Oklahoma on their home floor. Mississippi State actually plays a very similar offense to Alabama, as it's either free throws or threes for them. In their win over Oklahoma, they shot just 2-15 from three but made up for it at the free throw line, going 20-28. They're a very streaky shooting team, but Kentucky can't let them get hot. Defensively, Mississippi State is physical and make teams earn it from inside. They rank 39th in three-point defense. Star guard Josh Hubbard runs the show for the Bulldogs. In their win over Oklahoma, the SEC Player of the Year candidate dropped 30 points, and was a threat getting to the rim, going 10-15 from two and 7-9 from the line. He made his 1-7 shooting from three not matter. Kentucky has to execute better, plain and simple, or they're going to get burned similar to how they were against Alabama. But this is still against a Quad 3 opponent at home. Forget the troubling style of play. The Wildcats have to bounce back on their home court, especially given the circumstances head in to this one.

ESPN's prediction for the Wildcats vs. Bulldogs

As we head into a game that is so crucial for Kentucky it's hard to put it into words, ESPN gives the Wildcats a 79.7 percent chance to come out with the victory. As we have seen a lot this season, Kentucky can make that percentage look silly, and not in a good way. Kentucky had a similar percentage change to beat Missouri in Rupp Arena, and we know how that one turned out. In this game, the biggest thing for the Wildcats is to finally getting their execution on track. Their offense has looked abysmal, but their defense has struggled to execute, too. Just look at the Alabama game at Missouri's 15-2 run for examples.

Kentucky needs a feel-good and clean showing for the first time in a while, but at this point, they just need a win.