ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and Missouri

ESPN projects who will win between the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers men's basketball.

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope watches during game against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | David Leong-Imagn Images

Mark Pope and the Kentucky basketball team are now 9-5 on the season, including 2-5 against power conference teams, six of those teams being ranked in the top 25 at the time. After getting embarrassed in their 15-point loss against Alabama in the SEC-opener, the Kentucky Wildcats will face the Missouri Tigers back in Rupp Arena on Wednesday for the conference home-opener.

Kentucky will look to bounce back in a much-needed win on Wednesday when they take on Missouri. The Wildcats went into Tuscaloosa fully-healthy for the first time all season against Alabama, aside from the final 16 minutes of the St. John's game, where the Wildcats completed a comeback with a second-half surge. That provided a lot of optimism for Kentucky fans, as that small sample size provided them with hope that when they're healthy, they can be a dangerous team. That optimism was quickly gone when their team got punched in the mouth by Alabama, going down by as much as 21 and unable to complete the comeback. It was an embarrassing showing, as that identity that Kentucky presented against Indiana and St. John's, playing intense and physical defense, holding an Indiana team that's great at shooting to just 4-24 from three, a season low for them, before holding St. John's to 5-19 from three, that was gone on Saturday. The Wildcats let Alabama do whatever they wanted, going 15-38 from deep, and exploiting Kentucky's bad offensive execution.

As far as the Tigers go, they're coming off a big 76-74 win over then-#22 Florida on Saturday, now sitting at 11-3, looking to carry that momentum into Rupp Arena and add to Kentucky's struggles. Missouri plays a much different style than Alabama, so Kentucky will not have to worry about slowing down or keeping up with an electric offense. The Tigers play a slow pace, but are very efficient scoring. They rank 13th in effective field goal percentage, ranking 19th in two-point percentage and 62nd from three. But, if Kentucky's defense can get back to being intense and physical, they can really take advantage. The Tigers are very vulnerable to turnovers, as they're 235th in turnovers, even 341st in non-steal turnovers. That's the biggest key for Kentucky heading in, because they also need to get back to that physical and aggressive identity that they showed against Indiana and St. John's. Oh, and Missouri is 283rd in three-point defense, so Kam Williams could have the opportunity to go off again like against Bellarmine. Will he play more than six minutes in the first half?

ESPN's prediction for the Wildcats vs. Tigers

As the Wildcats and Tigers get ready for their clash in Rupp Arena on Wednesday night, ESPN is giving Kentucky a 79.8 percent chance to come away with the win. Kentucky will need to do what Florida couldn't in their loss to Missouri, and that's create more off turnovers and shoot well. Given what they rank in both, the Gators forced just 10 turnovers and had 11 points off them. Combined with that, on offense they were just 7-27 from three. Opponents have gotten 40 percent of their points from deep agsinst Missouri, which is the fifth-highest percentage in college basketball. It's worth noting Bellarmine allows the fourth-highest. With Kentucky's shooting struggles this season, they need to focus more on getting their aggressive energy back on defense in hopes that will translate to offense, but they could find success from three similar to against Bellarmine.

Kentucky has an opportunity to get back to doing what got them their first quality wins of the season in their games against Indiana and St. John's.