Three reasons the #25 Kentucky Wildcats will beat the #14 Florida Gators

Here's why Mark Pope's Wildcats will beat the Florida Gators.

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope looks on from the sideline during the game against Missouri in SEC college basketball Wednesday night at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky January 7, 2026. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats have a massive game coming up on Saturday with the Florida Gators, who have looked like one of the best teams in the nation over the last few weeks. Since the Gators home loss to Auburn over two weeks ago, they have won four straight over South Carolina, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Georgia.

The average margin of victory for the Gators in those four games is 27.3 points, so the Wildcats are running into a buzz saw. Let’s take a look at three things the Kentucky Wildcats have to do in order to win this game on the road.

Three reasons the Kentucky Wildcats will beat Florida on Saturday

Kentucky gets hot from three

Feb 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Collin Chandler (5) defends against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

The Florida Gators are one of the biggest teams in college basketball, starting 6’9, 6’10, and 6’11 players every single game. This means it isn’t easy for teams to score down low on the Gators amongst the trees. Obviously, the Kentucky Wildcats aren’t shooting as many threes this season as fans anticipated, but they are shooting the ball better of late. For the Wildcats to pull off this upset, they will need to make some threes because it will not be easy to beat the Florida Gators at their own game on their home floor.

The Wildcats are able to slow Thomas Haugh

Feb 1, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) reacts and gestures after making a three point basket during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Thomas Haugh is the star player for the Florida Gators, and he can score from all over the floor. The Gators get an advantage with Haugh because he is usually guarded by a smaller player, so he can get the three-ball up. Whichever Wildcat draws the assignment of guarding Haugh is going to have their hands full, but the Gators are at their best when Haugh has a big game. If Kentucky can slow the elite forward, they have a shot to pull off the upset in Gainesville.

Elite defense in the paint

Feb 4, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats center Malachi Moreno (24) shoots a free throw during the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

With all of the size the Florida Gators have, they do score a lot of points down low. On the season, the Gators are scoring 46.3 points per game from two, which is good for the fifth best in college basketball. They do shoot about 25 threes per game, but once again, the Gators want to beat teams down low. If Florida is dominating the paint and scoring at will down low, Kentucky won’t win. If Kentucky’s defense is able to contest shots down low and rebound the ball, they will have a shot on Valentine's Day.