Get to Know: Providence Carrying Efficient Offense, Lack of Momentum into NCAA Tournament
Kentucky basketball now knows its path in the NCAA Tournament.
The trek to try and make a run to the Final Four begins on Friday, March 17 in Greensboro, N.C., as the No. 6-seeded Wildcats will take on the No. 11 seed in the East Region, Providence.
The Friars hold the same 21-11 record as the Cats and have gone through the ringer in one of the best conference's in the country, the Big East (13-7 conference record). Kentucky has won all three prior meetings against Providence, with the most recent coming via a 58-38 win at Rupp Arena in 2014.
Coach Ed Cooley is in year 12 as head coach and is making his seventh appearance in the Big Dance with the Rhode Island school. Last season, his team made a run to the second weekend, losing in the Sweet 16 to Kansas, which went on to win the national title.
"Ed and I have known each other. We were assistants — well, I may be a little bit older than him. But he was an assistant as I was moving through the ranks at UMass, but I've known Ed," UK coach John Calipari said on Sunday. "Coach of the Year a year ago...is a great coach. Great Communicator. Motivator. He's terrific."
Here's what you need to know about the Friars ahead of Friday's Round of 64 tilt:
The Basics
NET Ranking: 56th
Quad 1 Record: 4-8
Quad 2 Record: 3-2
Quad 3 Record: 3-1
Quad 4 Record: 11-0
Home Record: 15-2
Away Record: 6-6
Neutral Record: 0-3
KenPom Ranking: 44th
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 16th (116.8)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 108th (102.1)
Adjusted Tempo: 195th (66.9)
Strength of Schedule: 72nd
High-Powered Offense = Bad Matchup on Paper for Kentucky
If you've followed along with the never-ending rollercoaster ride that has been Kentucky's 2022-23 season, you'll have noticed a trend by now.
The Wildcats tend to fare better against teams that are touted for their defense and fare worse against teams that bring a good offense to the table. Providence? 16th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
The Friars are averaging 78.1 points-per-game, a top-40 mark in the country. They've scored 78 points or more in 14 different games and have been held under 70 points in a game just eight times.
When glancing at Kentucky's losses this season, a clear theme of struggling against teams that can fill the cup is apparent:
- Gonzaga (1st in AdjOE)
- Missouri (10th)
- Alabama (19th)
- Vanderbilt x2 (22nd)
- UCLA (25th)
- Kansas (29th)
- Michigan State (41st)
- Arkansas (51st)
- Georgia (187th)
- South Carolina (203rd)
When looking at Kentucky's top wins this season, you'll see plenty of teams with a great adjusted defensive efficiency:
- Tennessee x2 (2nd in AdjDE)
- Mississippi State (6th)
- Arkansas (16th)
- Auburn (29th)
- Florida x2 (30th)
- Texas A&M (37th)
So, if there is any pattern that Kentucky has — for the most part — followed this season, it's handling better defenses and struggling with better offenses. Advantage, Providence.
Solid Starting Five Production, Bigger Bench Drop-Off
The storyline of the game is former Wildcat and current Friar Bryce Hopkins set to do battle against his former team. It matters more when you see that he leads his team in both points (18.1) and rebounds (8.5) per-game.
More on Hopkins HERE.
But who else does heavy-lifting for the Friars? The main production starts and stops with the usual starting lineup. All five starters that Cooley runs out average 10.0 PPG or more.
Ed Croswell, a 6-foot-8 senior, is next in line in PPG and RPG behind Hopkins, averaging 13.2 and 7.6. He'll be tasked with trying to body up Oscar Tshiebwe as best he can on Friday night. Croswell has eight double-doubles this season and has dropped 20 points or more on six occasions. He hold a 60.5 percent shooting percentage from the floor, but is just a 66-percent free-throw shooter.
The Providence backcourt has a couple of names that Kentucky fans may remember. Devin Carter, who averages 13.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG and 2.4 assists-per-game, transferred in after one year at South Carolina. When playing the Cats a year ago, he stuffed the stat sheet with seven points, six assists, four boards and two steals, though he did turn the ball over three times as well.
Senior guard Noah Locke has played for both Florida and Louisville, and has faced the Cats on six occasions with the Gators. His best outing came in the final game of the COVID-shortened 2019-2020 season, which saw him score 14 points and add two rebounds, hitting three 3-pointers.
This season, he's hitting 38.9 percent of his shots from behind the arc and is averaging 11.1 PPG and 2.3 RPG. In a Jan. 21 win over DePaul, he scored 29 points, hitting a whopping seven 3-pointers.
Another senior rounds out the starters, as 5-foot-10 guard Jared Bynum leads the team with 4.3 APG to go along with 10.0 PPG and 2.5 RPG. All five players are capable of racking up points, so while Hopkins will be the star of the show, he isn't the entire offense.
Following those five, just two other players average over 3.0 PPG — forward Clifton Moore and guard Alyn Breed.
Entering Greensboro On a Skid
Providence cruised through the first half of the season, at one point owning a 14-3 (6-0 Big East) record and a number next to its name. Then, conference play began to hit hard. The Friars' last 15 games saw a 7-8 record, including a three-game skid to lead into the NCAA Tournament matchup against Kentucky.
The low point came in a 82-58 thrashing at the hands of Seton Hall, an NIT team. UConn followed with a 73-66 win in the Big East Tournament. The Friars aren't exactly peaking at the right time like you're supposed to in March.
In Providence's last five losses, opponents have shot 53.7 percent from the field and 43.7 percent from 3-point range. If Kentucky (14th in AdjOE) can hit its stride offensively, it may be able to hang a large number on the shoddy Friars defense.
WATCH: Calipari, Fredrick, Ware react to draw
More on Bryce Hopkins HERE.
More on the bracket reveal and Kentucky's draw HERE.
Kentucky needs to get healthy, fast. More HERE.
More on the SEC Tournament loss to Vanderbilt HERE.
Everything Calipari said after the loss HERE.
Want the latest on national football and basketball recruiting, including Cats targets? Head over to SI All-American for the latest news, blogs, and updates about the nation's best prospects.
Sports Illustrated also offers insight, information and up to the minute details for gamblers. Check it out here.
