Kentucky Needs History to Repeat Itself Against Blistering Mississippi State in Starkville
With three weeks to go in the 2022-23 regular season, Kentucky's hopes of cracking the NCAA Tournament are in peril.
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch on Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, ultimately losing 75-68, a deflating defeat that brings coach John Calipari's group to 16-9 (7-5 SEC) on the year. If the season ended today, there would be no Kentucky in the 68-team field.
Blood may be in the water, but Calipari still isn't paying it any mind.
“Here’s what’s great — we’ve got the kind of schedule that, let’s go win games, and we’ll be fine. You’re going to have to win games,” he told reporters after the loss to UGA on Saturday.
Luckily (or unluckily, depending how you look at it) for Kentucky, the chance to reach the Big Dance is certainly still on the table. It's all about whether or not the Cats have what it takes to string a few big victories together with their backs firmly against the wall.
The first of those challenges comes Wednesday, as a trip down to Starkville, Miss. is on the docket. Mississippi State and new head coach Chris Jans will welcome UK to Humphrey Coliseum on a five-game winning streak, one that has cast a new view on a once-dim campaign for the Bulldogs.
The Jans' era began with a bang, as Miss State opened the year 11-0, including two Power 5 wins and a now-marquee victory over the Marquette Golden Eagles, who are currently No. 15 in the NET rankings.
Things came crashing down in a hurry in the final game before SEC play began, as Drake spoiled the perfect record. A home loss to conference juggernaut Alabama and a thrashing in Knoxville at the hands of Tennessee then served as a major wake-up call for the Bulldogs.
Following a win over Ole Miss, the Bulldogs would go on to lose five in a row, with the average margin of defeat being just six points. Reeling heading into the weekend of the Big 12/SEC Challenge, Jans' squad managed to defend home court against the then-11th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, winning a tight contest in overtime.
That win rejuvenated the version of the team that started the year on a tear. Two double-digit wins over South Carolina and LSU sandwiched an important victory over Missouri — one of the few SEC teams that will likely hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
The turnaround was solidified over the weekend, as a trip to Fayetteville to play Arkansas resulted in a commanding 70-64 win for the Bulldogs, as they kept the same offense that scored 88 against Kentucky earlier in the week in check.
Defense does the job for Jans, as MSU is currently fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 58.7 PPG. During its five-game winning streak, opponents are averaging 58.8 PPG.
It averages 9.4 steals-per-game (15th in Division I) and also forces 15.4 turnovers a night (35th). It's a good thing, too, because there's not much to brag about on offense.
Senior forward Tolu Smith stirs the drink in Starkville, as he leads with 14.6 points and 8.3 rebounds-per-game. He's one of eight players that has consistently played double-digit minutes for the Bulldogs this year. They average 65.6 PPG, which pitifully ranks 315th in the country.
UCLA proved that sometimes it doesn't even take that many points to defeat UK, so Miss State won't exactly need an extra offensive bump at home against a team that has failed to truly improve on defense over the course of the season.
What the Bruins did in the CBS Sports Classic on Dec. 17, was win. That's something that MSU has never done in the regular season versus Kentucky when Calipari has manned the ship in Lexington.
The Bulldogs did defeat the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament in 2021, but that Kentucky team finished the year 9-16. It took a lot not to beat UK that season.
Otherwise, Kentucky has won its 16 other games against MSU under Calipari. It will enter Wednesday night on the verge of full-frontal failure, so it desperately needs history to repeat itself in Starkville.
“I believe in this team, we’re gonna keep fighting, and we gotta get a win," Oscar Tshiebwe said after the UGA defeat. "The rest of the six games we gotta win and be ready for the tournament.”
Tipoff between Kentucky and Mississippi State is set for 8:30 p.m. EST. The game will air on the SEC Network.
More on what lies ahead for Kentucky HERE.
More on the loss to the Bulldogs HERE.
More on Wheeler and Fredrick's status HERE.
Game notes from the defeat can be found HERE.
WATCH: John Calipari speaks after loss to UGA.
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