Analytics predict the score between Kentucky and Michigan State

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are getting ready to make the trip to New York, where they will take on the Michigan State Spartans in Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State will head into this basketball game 3-0 with a big home win over John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks. Michigan State won this game 69-66, so they made it ugly and won a close one.

This is a very interesting Michigan State basketball team because they are not great shooters. Through three games, only four Spartans have made a three-point shot, and the team is shooting 21.7% from deep.

In the win over the Razorbacks, the Spartans only made one three-pointer, going 1-14, but they outscored Calipari's team 46-28 in the paint. The Spartans return four starters from a year ago, so they are a team that has a lot of experience playing together.

If the Wildcats are going to find a way to win this game, they will have to protect the rim and limit Michigan State to one shot per possession. Rebounding from both teams will be massive in this basketball game.

In this game against Arkansas, both teams turned the ball over 14 times, so the Wildcats need to try and create some turnovers. Creating turnovers isn't a strength of this Kentucky team, but the Wildcats will need to find a way to make it happen against the Spartans.

Let's take a look at what the KenPom Rankings have to say about this basketball game.

KenPom picks the winner between Kentucky and Michigan State

Nov 14, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope gives his players a thumbs up during the second half against the Eastern Illinois Panthers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

KenPom has picked the Wildcats to take down the Spartans 79-73. In all honesty, it is hard to see this game being this high scoring of a contest. The Spartans have an excellent defense, but obviously, the offense isn't great.

If Kentucky is going to win this game by a wide margin, then the final score will be something around 75-60. If this is a close game, more than likely the final score for both teams will be in the 60s.

For the final score to be in the mid-70s, both of these teams would need to have an elite offensive game, and that has been a struggle for these ball clubs early.

This should be a good basketball game between two historic programs, but if the Wildcats come out and have a good offensive showing, they should beat Michigan State in the State Farm Champions Classic.