Analytics predict the winner between Kentucky and South Carolina

Will Kentucky end the losing streak in Columbia?

Feb 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope reacts to the action during the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

A three-game losing streak has blossomed for the Kentucky Wildcats, and Mark Pope needs to find a way to nip this losing streak in the bud. The Wildcats will have an opportunity to end this losing streak when they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in Columbia on Tuesday night.

South Carolina is a team that many will argue is the worst in the SEC, right there with LSU and Oklahoma. Technically, the team that is currently in last place in the SEC is LSU, and it took a Malachi Moreno miracle shot to win on the road in Baton Rouge. This means that while the Gamecocks haven’t been good this season, if Kentucky doesn’t play well, this game will be tough to win.

The Gamecocks have a seasoned veteran guard in Meechie Johnson, who has given the Wildcats a ton of problems in the past. Johnson is having a great year for the Gamecocks, averaging 17.1 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game.

When the Wildcats lost on Saturday to the Auburn Tigers, this Auburn team was on a five-game losing streak. It was starting to look like they could miss the NCAA Tournament, and they were incredibly desperate. This desperation showed as they never went away and found a way to take down the Wildcats.

In this game, the Gamecocks have absolutely nothing to play for, and the crowd likely won’t be great. The Wildcats will be the more desperate team, and as Auburn did, the Wildcats need to play like it.

Some fans don’t like to use the word must-win game but without the shadow of a doubt, this is a must-win game for Pope’s Wildcats. Let’s take a look at what the analytics have to say about this matchup between the Wildcats and Gamecocks.

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope talks with his team as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala. on Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026. Auburn Tigers defeated Kentucky Wildcats 75-74. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Analytics predict the winner between Kentucky and South Carolina

KenPom

KenPom does believe the Kentucky Wildcats will make the trip down to South Carolina and win this basketball game. The top analytics page predicts Kentucky to win this game with the final score being 77-71.

ESPN

ESPN also believes the Kentucky Wildcats won’t have any kind of trouble getting the job done on the road in Columbia as they give the Wildcats a 75.6% chance to win this ball game.

If the Wildcats are not able to win this ball game conversations of Pope's team missing the NCAA Tournament will fully be on the table.