ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and #18 Vanderbilt

ESPN projects who will win between the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores men's basketball.

Jan 24, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope claps after a possession during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

The Kentucky Wildcats have extended their winning streak to five games after beating the Ole Miss Rebels inside Rupp Arena on Saturday. The Wildcats have defeated the Rebels along with Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas during this stretch. Now, they get set to start a much different stretch of games, one that will be their hardest of the season. First up, Kentucky will hit the road to face the #18 Vanderbilt Commodores on Tuesday night.

Mark Pope's Kentucky squad is facing Vandy is what will be the first of a two-game road trip where over the next six games, they will face four ranked opponents, three of which on the road. But, it's all about taking it one game at a time, and Kentucky is looking to slowly keep building the recent momentum by making some serious noise on the road against a top-20 Vanderbilt team. The Commodores have been one of the more surprisingly good teams in college basketball this season. But, SEC play has been a bit of a wakeup call for them, as they are just 4-3 in the conference so far, After starting the conference schedule with a statement win over Alabama, but followed that up by losing three-straight, before recently picking up a 30-point win against Mississippi State.

As for what the Commodores will be bringing on Tuesday, they are very good on both sides of the ball, but it mainly starts with their extremely efficient offense. Vandy ranks 8th nationally in turnover percentage, 2nd in blocks and 1st in steals. That certainly spells an efficient offense on paper, and it really bodes well with their scoring ability, as Vandy is also the 11th-best scoring offense in the country, efficiently distributing their points from both three-point range and inside the paint. As for the defense, the Commodores are very shaky, as aside from their three-point defense and getting turnovers off steals, it's very exploitable. For Kentucky, they need to continue being efficient from two, continue attacking the rim and get out in transition against a poor offensive rebounding Vandy team.

Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Andrija Jelavic (4), guard Jasper Johnson (2), guard Collin Chandler (5) and center Malachi Moreno (24) react after guard Otega Oweh makes a free throw during the second half against the Texas Longhorns at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

As the Wildcats get set for a massive opportunity on the road, ESPN gives Kentucky a 34.9% chance to come away with the win. If Kentucky can exploit a shaky two-point defense and a bad offensive rebounding Vanderbilt squad, Pope's squad will have a good chance of getting the way, but that's a tall task trying to keep up with one of the more efficient offenses in the country that can score in many different ways.

It can certainly be done, as we saw during Vanderbilt's three-game losing streak, but if Kentucky's defense is not on-point, it could be a long night in Nashville. Can Kentucky do what they did at Tennessee and prove the doubters wrong again?