KenPom doesn't like Kentucky's chances to beat #18 Vanderbilt in Nashville

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are about to trek through the snow and ice to make their way down to Nashville to take on the #18 Vanderbilt Commodores. Currently, the Commodores are 5th in the SEC with a 4-3 record. Vandy came into SEC play undefeated but picked up three quick losses to Texas, Arkansas, and Florida.

Vandy is coming off a blowout road win over Mississippi State, but Kentucky definitely comes into this game as the team with more momentum. Early into SEC play, some fans were wondering if Vanderbilt was truly a powerhouse or just a team that preyed on a weak non-conference schedule. Seven games into SEC play, there isn’t much clarity to this conversation, as Vandy has looked excellent at times but also beatable at others.

The Commodores have an elite backcourt featuring Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. Tanner is averaging 17.4 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Miles is averaging 16.6 points and leads the team in steals with 2.8 per game. Another star player for this team is Tyler Nickel, who is the sharpshooter for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are at their best when Nickel is making threes so if Kentucky is going to win this game, they will need to slow the 6’7 forward.

Jan 17, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores forward Tyler Nickel (5) reacts after a made three point basket against the Florida Gators during the first half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Taking a look at KenPom the analytics website doesn’t like the Wildcats in this game as they project Vanderbilt to win 83-76. A big key in this game for the Wildcats will be getting out to a fast start. Over their last few games, Kentucky has been better in this aspect as they were tied with Texas at the half and up by six against Ole Miss at the break. While it is fun to watch the Cardiac Cats pull off these second-half comebacks, it would be a lot better for this team if it did not need a second-half comeback.

Vandy is a smaller team with their starting five standing (6’0, 6’2, 6’7, 6’7, 6’7), which means Coach Pope needs to use the size of his roster to get an advantage. This would be a perfect game for Malachi Moreno to play well as the Wildcats look to pull off the upset.

Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats center Malachi Moreno (24) defends against Texas Longhorns center Matas Vokietaitis (8) during the second half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

If the Wildcats are able to get this win in Nashville, Pope’s team will be heading to Fayetteville to take on John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks with a six-game winning streak. Kentucky is finding a groove, and this game is a massive opportunity in the Music City.