KenPom has Kentucky's matchup with Santa Clara being an absolute barnburner

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are getting ready to play a very tough Santa Clara team.

Jan 31, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Most are projecting the matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and Santa Clara Broncos to be a very tight game, and the analytics agree with this. KenPom has projected the final score of this game, and it was Kentucky winning by two points, taking down the Broncos 81-79. KenPom has been high on the Broncos all season as they are ranked 35 overall in these rankings.

35th overall in KenPom for Santa Clara has them the highest of all the ten seeds, including Missouri and Texas A&M, who both beat Kentucky this season. This just goes to show how good a basketball game this is shaping up to be. From the Kentucky perspective, if they play the way fans know they are capable of, the Wildcats will win this game by double digits. If Kentucky isn’t playing well early, this is going to be a barnburner.

Mar 12, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) reacts after a made three point basket against the Missouri Tigers during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

This game will come down to how the Wildcats defend the three-point line. The Broncos have a solid frontcourt, but they will struggle to score against the Wildcats down low. If Kentucky is going to lose this game, it will be because Santa Clara got hot from three. They shoot 29.2 threes per game, which is 22nd in the nation, and they shoot 34.6% from deep on those attempts.

This Santa Clara team wants to shoot the ball a ton from deep, and this has been a struggle for the Wildcats this year. The Broncos are also a really dominant offensive rebounding team. When a team shoots the three-ball a lot, this often leads to long rebounds. The Wildcats need to be ready for this, or it could be a long night for Pope’s team.

Mar 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope claps during the first half against the Florida Gators at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Analytically, the Broncos do not have a very good defense, so the Wildcats should be able to score. Santa Clara fouls a ton, which means the Wildcats need to try and get to the rim and get these Broncos in foul trouble. If Oweh could live at the line shooting and ones in this matchup, it would likely lead to a Kentucky win.

Normally, in the mid-major matchups in the NCAA Tournament, the Cinderella teams have some size issues, but that is not the case for Santa Clara. They are a big team, and this is a reason they are one of the better rebounding teams in the nation. This is not going to be a walk in the park for the Wildcats, but if the best version of Pope’s team shows up, they will move on to the Round of 32.