Ranking Kansas State’s 2026 Opponents by Tiers of Difficulty

The Kansas State football schedule has been released and it is time to look ahead and see what the 2026 season has in store. Despite there being much uncertainty of what the team will look like under new head coach Collin Klein, who they play matters almost as much as the team itself. The Wildcats are set to play a wide variety of opponents as they are set to take on the two worst teams in the Big 12 last season and a group of five opponents who made the college football playoff. Just like their opponents, the results in these games will vary wildly.

Close to Guaranteed Wins

No win in college football is guaranteed. However, there are a few games on each power four team's schedule that are as close to guaranteed as they could get. Kansas State is set to take on Nicholls in the first game of the season. Nicholls finished 4-8 last season in the FCS, which is much weaker than the FBS as a whole, especially the power four.

The Wildcats have two other near guaranteed wins on their schedule, as they are set to play Oklahoma State, and Colorado as a part of their Big 12 Schedule. Both of those teams finished as the two worst teams in the Big 12 last season, with Oklahoma State being run off the field in most games they played. There also isn’t much of a reason to believe that they will turn it around in one year as well.

Should be Favored, Not a Guaranteed Win

Washington State and Kansas fall into this category of 2026 Kansas State opponents. The Cougars finished last season with a 7-6 record and a bowl win over Utah State. However, they had a very easy schedule that allowed them to get to that point as their wins came over Oregon state, Idaho, San Diego State, Colorado state and Louisiana Tech. Everytime they played a power four opponent or a higher tier group of five opponents, they fell short.

Kansas is another game they should be favored in, but are not guaranteed to win. The Wildcats will likely be the better team on paper but rivalry games are weird and upsets cannot be ruled out. In addition, the Jayhawks went 5-7 last season, finishing just under the Wildcats who went 6-6.

True Toss ups

Iowa State, Cincinnati, Tulane, and TCU fall into this category. Yes, Tulane was a college football playoff participant last season, however, they did lose their head coach in the offseason and that could come back to haunt them severely, especially since they are a smaller program.

Iowa State’s situation is very similar to Tulane’s. The Cyclones head coach was poached by Penn State, meaning that a drop off could be coming as players leave the program to follow him. That drop off will likely knock them down to Kansas State’s perceived level.

Cincinnati and TCU are the final true tossups because all three teams finished the 2026 season tied in terms of conference wins and standings.

Up Hill Battles

The final category includes Arizona, Arizona State, and Houston. The Wildcats will likely not be favored in any of these games as they have not done enough in the offseason to prove that they are on the same level as those three programs. On top of that, none of these teams have had something like a coaching change in the offseason that would suggest a major step back.

How will Kansas State finish the season

When all of these factors are considered, the floor for Kansas State next season will likely be 4-8, while their ceiling should be around 8-4. Averaging that out and it looks like another 6-6 season could be in store for the Wildcats.

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