Previewing and Predicting Games 5-8 on K-State Football’s 2026 schedule

K-State heads into its lone bye of the 2026 season following its close win to open Big 12 play at Cincinnati, improving to 4-0 overall. There’s a quiet optimism talented true freshman offensive tackle, Oliver Miller, could return from injury following the bye week, giving the Wildcats a much-needed addition upfront.

Now, K-State begins an eight-game grind with no weeks off. How do the Wildcats perform in games five through eight? Let’s preview their October opponents and predict each game just as we did in part one of this three-part series.

Oct. 10, Houston

The Wildcats return home for arguably their toughest opponent on the 2026 schedule in Houston. The Cougars made a massive jump in year two of the Willie Fritz era, improving from a 4-8 record in 2024 to a 10-3 record overall last season.

Perhaps we should have expected it given Fritz’s track record. According to Bill Connelly of ESPN, Fritz’s all-time winning percentage in his first year at a program is just over 50%, but rises to 73% in year two, and holds steady at just under 73% in his third season.

Houston returns 65% of its overall production from last season, a mark that ranks second-highest in the Big 12 Conference and No. 17 nationally. The Cougars return 71% of their offensive production, the most in the Big 12. Per Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews, Houston returns 18,538 snaps on offense, the second most in college football.

While Houston’s defense was solid in 2025, the biggest jump was due to the improvement of the Cougars’ offense. Houston averaged 1.12 points per drive in 2024, which ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams. In 2025, Fritz turned the offense over to his former Tulane assistant, Slade Nagle, who led a massive turnaround. The Cougars improved to 2.51 points per drive, ranking 44th in the country.

Nagle’s offense will be led by returning starting quarterback Connor Weigman, a former five-star recruit who began his career at Texas A&M. Weigman threw for over 2,700 yards last season and rushed for over 700 yards, while recording 36 total touchdowns. He ranked No. 5 in the Big 12 in Quarterback rating (QBR) and 41st nationally. One thing that’s notable is Collin Klein and some of his assistants on the current K-State staff coached Weigman during the 2024 season at A&M and have a familiarity with him.

It will be interesting to see how Houston manages its quarterbacks. The Cougars landed five-star Keisean Henderson, the nation’s No. 1-ranked quarterback recruit in the 2026 class. It’s expected Nagle finds a way to utilize him as a true freshman.

Leading slot receiver and First Team All-Big 12 selection Amare Thomas returns after registering 67 receptions for 966 yards last season. The Cougars also landed Trent Walker in the transfer portal. Walker led Oregon State in receiving each of the last two seasons, combining for 149 receptions and over 1,700 yards.

One big loss for the Cougars is tight end Tanner Koziol, who led all tight ends nationally with 74 receptions last season and was First Team All-Big 12.

Houston’s offensive line was not a strength in 2025. There was a focus on addressing that this offseason. The Cougars added three offensive linemen through the transfer portal who all were all-conference selections in their respective leagues in 2025, highlighted by Shadre Hurst from Tulane, who was First Team All-American Athletic Conference (AAC) in 2024 and 2025.

Fritz also has reunited with former running back Makhi Hughes. Hughes was with Fritz previously at Tulane, where he rushed for nearly 2,800 yards combined in 2023 and 2024. Hughes transferred to Oregon last season but found little playing time and has since transferred to Houston. Hughes rushed for 128 yards and averaged over 6 yards per carry when the Wildcats defeated Tulane in New Orleans in 2024.

Houston lost five of its six defensive players who earned All-Big 12 honors in 2025. But the Cougars still return nearly 14,000 total snaps on defense, 17th-highest nationally, while adding several talented pieces through the portal this offseason.

Some might argue Houston could be a regression candidate in 2026. The Cougars went 6-1 in one-score games last season. Odds will tell you that’s not a repeatable formula. However, the pushback to that is Houston may not find itself in as many single-score games heading into year three of the Fritz era.

A month ago I had K-State winning this game. However, I have flipped my prediction. Houston hands the Wildcats their first loss of 2026 in a tight game, 28-24, and Fritz improves to 3-0 against K-State since 2022.

Prediction:

Houston 28, K-State 24

Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)

Oct 17, KU

KU had seemingly been closing the gap with K-State heading into 2025. The Jayhawks trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter at one point in the 2022 matchup in Manhattan before falling 47-27. Then the Jayhawks blew an 11-point second-half lead the following season in Lawrence, falling 31-27. In 2024, KU led the Wildcats by one with under four minutes remaining in the game, only to find a way to lose its 16th straight in the rivalry. That’s been par for the course in the Lance Leipold era, who is 2-9 in his last 11 games decided by one score. In 2024 and 2025, the Jayhawks have lost nine games where they held fourth-quarter leads.

Which leads us to the 2025 game in Lawrence, when K-State entered the Sunflower Showdown as the underdog for the first time since 2009. Many in Lawrence believed this would be the end of the painful losing streak to K-State. Instead, it was a flashback to the times when the Wildcats would dominate the Jayhawks, with K-State winning 42-17 and leaving KU fans heading for the exits early once again.

The last two K-State head coaches never lost to KU during their respective tenures, with Bill Snyder defeating them in every matchup since returning to the job for his second stint in 2009. Meanwhile, Chris Klieman went 7-0 against KU. Can Collin Klein continue the in-state dominance and take the streak to 18 in 2026? He contributed to the streak as a player, and now he has the opportunity to add to it as the Wildcats’ head coach.

KU has lost a significant amount of talent, including quarterback Jalon Daniels, who just made the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster as their backup. The Jayhawks have named dual-threat Isaiah Marshall as their starting quarterback over former walk-on Cole Ballard, who started against K-State in the 2023 matchup.

Only five of 16 players who recorded 200-plus snaps on offense last season return. However, Andy Kotelnicki has returned to be the offensive coordinator after two years in the same position at Penn State. Kotelnicki produced elite offenses at KU in 2022 and 2023. Can he do the same with substantially less weapons than he had in his previous tenure with the Jayhawks? You can’t put it past him considering he schemed up 27 points against K-State with Ballard at quarterback in 2023.

Defense has always been the struggle during Lance Leipold’s tenure at KU. I expect that trend to continue this season. Kotelnicki may find a creative way to get some points on the board against the Wildcats, but I expect a couple mistakes from one of his inexperienced quarterbacks in Manhattan, and K-State should have little trouble once again putting points on the board.

The streak continues as the Wildcats win their 18th straight against KU, 38-20.

Prediction:

K-State 38, KU 20

Record: 5-1 (2-1 Big 12)

Oct. 24, at Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham has orchestrated one of the more impressive turnarounds in college football in recent years, producing a 19-7 record at Arizona State over the last two seasons, including a Big 12 Championship in 2024. The 19 wins is the best two-year stretch for the Sun Devils since the 2013 and 2014 squads.

Arizona State returns 51% of its overall production from last season, ranking 71st nationally. Only one Big 12 team—Iowa State—returns less from 2025 than Arizona State, according to Bill Connelly of ESPN. Eighteen starters are gone, while only 11 of 34 regular contributors who played 200-plus snaps last season return. Star quarterback Sam Leavitt transferred to LSU, running back Raleek Brown departed for Texas, and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson became a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Arizona State’s top five players in yards from scrimmage from last season are gone.

Dillingham hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in Kentucky quarterback transfer Cutter Boley, a former four-star recruit who started 10 games a true freshman for the Wildcats last season. Boley ranked 12th in the SEC in QBR last season and No. 6 among all power-four freshmen quarterbacks.

Dillingham’s most impressive portal haul is at wide receiver. Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews ranks the Sun Devils’ receiving corps as second-best in the Big 12 Conference. Arizona State picked up Colorado transfer Omarion Miller, a top-five receiver in the portal who had 45 receptions for 808 yards and 18 yards per catch with the Buffaloes last season. Miller has averaged 19 yards per reception on 66 catches during his three-year career and has crushed K-State, recording 16 receptions for 266 yards combined in the last two matchups against the Wildcats.

Arizona State also added Boston College transfer Reed Harris, a 6-foot-5 receiver who had 39 receptions for 673 yards last season, and 17 receptions for 486 yards (almost 29 yards per catch) in his sophomore season on bad Boston College offenses. Harris has averaged 20.4 yards per catch on 57 receptions in his three seasons of college football.

The Sun Devils lost all five starters on the offensive line, including left tackle Max Iheanachor, who became a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. It’s interesting Dillingham elected to only bring in two transfers upfront, highlighted by the addition of Georgia Tech’s starting center Tana Alo-Tupuola. They also added Luke Balenko, a two-year starter at Stanford and backup at Oklahoma that K-State also looked at in the portal.

Defensive coordinator Brian Ward returns for another season. Ward has produced a top 25 defense back-to-back years, according to Brett Ciancia’s opponent-adjusted metrics on Pick Six Previews. BYU and Arizona State are the only Big 12 teams to accomplish that feat, according to Ciancia.

Ward will have to replace 10 starters from last season, including six who earned All-Big 12 honors. The only starter back is defensive tackle C.J Fite.

Arizona State must navigate an incredibly tricky schedule in 2026. The Sun Devils strength of schedule ranks 28th nationally, according to the SP+ on ESPN, and is by far and away the toughest schedule in the conference on paper. Additionally, Arizona State has a non-conference matchup on the road at Texas A&M, plays KU in London on Sept. 19, and has to travel to Texas Tech the week prior to hosting K-State, with a road trip to BYU looming the week after playing the Wildcats.

I expect this to be a closely contested game, but ultimately believe the Sun Devils hand K-State its second loss of the season, 30-27.

Prediction:

Arizona State 30, K-State 27

Record: 5-2 (2-2 Big 12)

Oct 31, at Colorado

This is a tricky spot in K-State’s schedule. It’s the Wildcats’ second straight game on the road and is in altitude.

Excitement in Boulder was high following Deion Sanders’ second season as the Buffaloes head coach, when he led them to a nine-win season. However, Colorado followed that up with an abysmal 3-9 campaign and 1-8 conference record in 2025.

To turn things around, Sanders elected to replace both coordinators, highlighted by new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who is notorious for improving offenses everywhere he goes (a lot of places). Since 2015, Marion has worked for 10 different programs.

Marion was the head coach at Sacramento State in 2025, and was the offensive coordinator at UNLV in 2023 and 2024. Prior to that, he was the passing game coordinator at Texas in 2022. He runs what he calls the go-go offense, a run-heavy attack that takes vertical shots when airing the ball out.

Over the past six years as a head coach and coordinator, Marion’s offensives have averaged over 30 points a game, and last year at Sacramento State his offense ran the ball on 69% of their plays. They ran it on 65% of plays in 2024 at UNLV, sixth-highest in the country among all FBS teams.

But how does that offensive system and scheme work in Boulder? That’s the big question, because Colorado has been atrocious at running the football during the Sanders era. Colorado ranked No. 123 nationally and last in the Big 12 in yards per carry at 3.5 in 2025. In 2024, the Buffaloes ranked next to last nationally at 2.48 yards per rush. And in 2023, Colorado was dead last nationally with 2.31 yards per rush while rushing for only 827 yards on the entire season. I have serious questions whether Colorado’s roster can effectively run the ball the way Marion hopes, particularly following the transfer of star offensive tackle Jordan Seaton to LSU.

Marion is expected to turn his offense over to former five-star quarterback recruit Julian Lewis, who appeared in four games last season, throwing for 589 yards along with a 55% completion percentage.

While I have questions as to whether Colorado can be effective in Marion’s run scheme, I believe the receivers can certainly execute his vertical passing scheme. The Buffaloes loaded up in the portal at receiver, highlighted by the addition of Kam Perry, who averaged nearly 23 yards per catch on 976 yards receiving last season at Miami Ohio, where he was First Team All MAC. Colorado added Danny Scudero, a 5-foot-9 slot receiver who led college football with 1,297 yards receiving last season on 88 receptions at San Jose State. Lastly, Sanders added Texas transfer DeAndre Moore, who had 532 yards on 38 receptions for the Longhorns last season. The Buffaloes also return big-play receiver Joseph Williams.

Colorado added three power-conference starters along the offensive line, a unit that ranked 130th in the country last season with an 11% sack rate.

Sanders moved on from defensive coordinator Robert Livingston, who had turned around the Colorado defense in the 2024 season. But in 2025, the Buffaloes regressed, ranking 127th out of 136 FBS teams in yards per carry allowed at 5.2, last in the Big 12. Colorado ranked 114th nationally in yards per play allowed, and the 2.66 points per drive given up ranked 107th in the nation.

Sanders has handed the keys to the defense over to Chris Marve, who was promoted from within. Marve was the defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech from 2022-24.

Marve will have just one player back on defense who started more than six games last year, but the Buffaloes attacked the portal hard and brought in some productive players, including Gideon Lampron at linebacker.

I do not believe Sanders will be able to fix Colorado’s issues and that it will be a second straight season of struggles, making the 2024 season look more like a fluke than anything else.

I expect K-State’s offensive line to be clicking by game eight and the running game to get going, leading to a 38-24 victory for the Wildcats in Boulder.

Prediction:

K-State 38, Colorado 24

Record: 6-2 (3-2 Big 12)

Add us as a preferred source on Google